Russia Infrastructure Report Q4 2011

BMI View: We have revised up our 2011 forecast based on a more bullish macroeconomic outlook. We have also priced in the effects of the 2018 World Cup preparations, which we anticipate will accelerate from 2014 onwards. We maintain our core view that political risk is the main element that could ultimately curtail growth, as public policy remains opaque, convoluted and subject to frequent change. Government meddling in the corporate sector also raises the scope for delays to major projects.
The themes that dominate developments in Russia’s infrastructure sector are: ?? The Russian government's decision to create a US$10bn investment fund highlights the state's commitment to sharing the risks inherent in investment in Russia with the private sector – in an effort to attract a greater level of private capital. The government aims to use this investment fund as seed money to mobilise between US$50bn and US$90bn over the next five years, by financing up to 20% of the cost of privately procured development projects.
?? The 2018 World Cup win has prompted a change in our long term-forecasts, with growth accelerating, especially in the non-residential and residential construction sector. However, we see risks to the implementation of projects and foresee problems related to project cost overruns.
?? Furthermore, infrastructure associated with the export of commodities (pipelines, ports and transport infrastructure – to support oil and gas output in East Siberia) has the highest growth potential – as development is predicated on growth in the natural resources sector. These projects have been prioritised by the government.
Privatisation is also a theme for 2011 – despite the fact it did not really materialise in 2010 – as the government seeks to finance the budget deficit (forecast to be US$73bn in 2010, or 6% of GDP) by offloading of assets. Transport and energy assets have been earmarked among the 5,500 state-owned companies in which the state plans to divest stakes. In this respect, EDF's subsidiary ERDF has come to an agreement with Russia's state-owned distribution company MRSK Holding to receive management rights for the Tomsk Distribution Company, one of the eleven regional distribution subsidiaries operating in Russia.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Russia Infrastructure SWOT . 6
Market Overview 7
Russia 7
Building Materials . 10
Global Materials . 10
Europe Overview 17
Industry Forecast Scenario . 23
Table: Russia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data 23
Table: Russia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data 25
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 27
Transport Infrastructure . 31
Table: Russia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data 31
Table: Russia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data 33
Transport Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 35
Transport Infrastructure Overview 37
Major Projects Table – Transport Infrastructure . 43
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects – Transport 43
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure . 49
Table: Russia Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data 49
Table: Russia Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data 51
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 53
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview 54
Oil And Gas Pipelines . 56
Major Projects Table – Energy And Utilities 59
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects – Energy & Utilities . 59
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 63
Table: Russia Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data . 63
Table: Russia Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data . 64
Residential/Non-Residential Construction Forecast Scenario . 64
Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure Overview . 66
Major Projects Table – Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure 71
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects – Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 71
Special Events . 72
Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics . 72
Table: Planned Olympic Sports Venues 74
2018 World Cup . 75
Table: Major Concerns Expressed In FIFA Evaluation Report of Russian Bid . 75
Table: Russia World Cup Preparations – Fact Box 76
Business Environment . 78
Russia Business Environment 78
Rewards 78
Risks . 78
Regional Overview . 79
Eastern Europe Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings 79
Table: CEE Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 83
Company Monitor 84
Mostootryad No.19 . 84
Russian Railways (RZD) . 86
Global Overview 89
Methodology 96
Industry Forecasts . 96
Construction Industry . 97
Data Methodology 97
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors 97
Construction . 99
Capital Investment 99
Construction Sector Employment .100
Infrastructure Business Environment Rating 101
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators 102
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