Russia's mining sector is set to grow slowly over the forecast period to 2015, marking a reversal of the declining output seen since 2006. We forecast the value of the mining sector to reach US$259bn in 2015 from US$134bn in 2010, marking an annual average growth rate of 2.6%. While we expect Russia to remain the world's largest palladium and nickel producer, we forecast that its share of global output is likely to fall with faster nickel output growth in Canada and the Philippines and larger increases in palladium production in South Africa.
Modest Growth Across The Board We expect Russia's nickel production will reach 302kt (thousand tonnes) in 2015, from 274kt in 2010, marking an annual average growth rate of 1.9%. This growth will be driven by Norilsk Nickel which expects to produce 12ktpa at the Skalisty mine in 2012 and 8ktpa at the Gluboky in 2013. Besides Norilsk Nickel, Amur Minerals has revealed estimated reserves of 171kt at its Maly Krumkon mine. In addition, we forecast palladium output to reach 3.0moz (million ounces) in 2015, marking average growth of 2.2% per annum from 2.7moz in 2010.
BMI expects platinum production to exhibit similar levels of growth, increasing by 2.5% per annum over the forecast period, reaching 917koz in 2015, from 810koz in 2010. The growth in platinum and palladium production will also be driven by Norilsk Nickel, which plans to increase output at its Severny and Oktyabrsky mines. Looking further ahead, Urals Alluvial Platinum is developing the Kluevsky & Volchetundra deposits which could provide a further boon to production.
Regulatory Environment Russia's mining sector is wrought with bureaucratic obstacles which have restricted a number of foreign investors in the sector. At present, there are no indications that the government will ease these restrictions and thus we expect the sector will continue to be dominated by domestic miners. In 2010, the Russian government reintroduced a 6% gross royalty tax and introduced a 5% levy on nickel exports. The levy on nickel exports has had a negative impact on demand for Russian nickel as other nickel producers such as Canada and Indonesia have not implemented a tax hike. In addition, there are restrictions on foreign companies developing large-scale resources in Russia and diamonds, uranium, cobalt, nickel, lithium, the platinum group metals, tantalum and niobium cannot be mined by foreign companies. These legal obstacles, as well as the endemic corruption in Russia, will continue to prevent overseas companies from investing in the mining sector.
Key Players Russia's mining sector is dominated by Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest producer of palladium and nickel. We expect Norilsk's dominance to continue as it possesses some of the largest expansion plans. That said, growth will be restricted by falling grades at the company's Komsomolskiy nickel and the Kaula-Kotselvaara palladium mine. We expect the mining sector to remain consolidated in future as few new companies have stated an interest in developing resources. However, if metal prices remain elevated, there could be substantial exploration projects in Russia, given the country's size and potential reserves.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Russia Political SWOT 7
Russia Economic SWOT 7
Russia Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Mining Outlook 9
Table: Main Frontier Mining Projects 10
Table: Lower Grades At Key Mines 11
Table: Uranium Developments 11
Table: Regulatory Issues 12
Table: Other Developments 12
Industry Trends And Developments 13
Table: Main Projects 15
Table: Mining Industry Value, 2008-2015 15
Europe Mining Business Environment Ratings 16
Europe Mining Business Environment Ratings 16
Political Outlook 19
Industry Forecast 22
Palladium: Output To Surpass 30moz In 2015 22
Table: Largest Expansion Plans 23
Table: Palladium Production, 2008-2015 23
Nickel: Norilsk To Lead Gradual Output Increase 23
Table: Expansion Plans 24
Table: Nickel Production, 2008-2015 25
Platinum: Norilsk To Increase Production Marginally 25
Table: Largest Expansion Plans 27
Table: Platinum Production 27
Regulatory Development 28
Competitive Landscape 29
Table: Operating Statistics, 2010 (US$mn) 30
Company Monitor 31
Norilsk Nickel 31
Eurasia Mining 33
Amur Minerals 35
Commodities Forecasts 37
Aluminium 37
Copper 37
Lead 38
Nickel 38
Tin 39
Zinc 40
Gold 40
Global Assumptions 42
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 42
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 43
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 43
Developed States 44
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 44
Emerging Markets 45
Table: Emerging Market’s GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 46
Consensus Forecasts 47
Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 47
Country Snapshot: Russia Demographic Data 48
Section 1: Population 48
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 48
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 49
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 49
Table: Education, 2002-2005 49
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 49
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 50
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 50
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 50
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2006 51
Business Environment Ratings Methodology 52
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators 53
Table: Weighting Of Components 54
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]