Growth in Russian petrochemicals capacity will make it increasingly difficult for European and Asian producers to export to Russia despite expected strong growth in demand over the next five years, according to BMI’s latest Russia Petrochemicals Report.
Russian chemical output was up 14.6% in 2010 while rubber and plastic production grew 21.5%. These sectors outpaced the 11.8% overall growth for the manufacturing sector and reversed the declines seen in 2009. The pace of growth was assisted by strong growth in petrochemicals using industries, such as the automotive industry which grew by nearly a third. While leading Russian petrochemicals producer Sibur’s rubber output soared 28% y-o-y, to 434,000 tonnes, and fertiliser production grew 6%, to 2.95mn tonnes, its polymer output declined 0.6%, to 592,000 tonnes. This demonstrates the weaknesses within the market, particularly with the poor performance of the construction sector, which shrank over 2% in 2010 thereby negatively impacting on PVC sales. This is set to change with construction growth of 0.8% in 2011, although the residential and non-residential construction industry value will continue to decline in coming years. We see recovery on the back of preparations for the 2018 World Cup, especially in commercial construction.
Petrochemicals production growth will be led by Sibur’s expansion in 2011, with the company planning a 14% y-o-y rise in output, to 18.8mn tonnes. Although the strong rouble will likely start to hurt external demand for manufactures at some point, for now we remain upbeat on the outlook for the petrochemicals sector. With inflation set to fall in the second half of the year, and consumer confidence likely to rise thanks to the strength of the wider economy, we expect consumption to start recovering in H211. With banks well placed to lend, we believe that household spending will become an increasingly important driver of growth over the coming years. This should stimulate growth in consumption of polymers used in the rapidly expanding consumer goods industries, which will be boosted by growth in household expenditure.
Russia’s polymer sector will see significant changes due to expansion of production capacity, which should reduce reliance on imports and stabilise prices. New projects include SNOS’s recent commencement of production at its new 120,000tpa HDPE plant and the beginning of commercial operations at Sibur Khimprom’s new 50,000tpa EPS plant at Perm, the planned completion of Alco- Nafta’s 240,000tpa bottle-grade PET plant, Sibur’s planned 500,000tpa PP facility and 1mn tpa ethylene cracker at the Tobolsk Neftekhim site and its 330,000tpa PVC JV with SolVin at Kstovo due to be completed in 2012. State-owned Gazprom also has plans for a complex in the Orenburg region with capacities of 650,000tpa PE and 450,000tpa PP, expected to come onstream in 2015.
In 2015, we envisage ethylene capacities totalling 5.22mn tpa; this may be greater if plans for the Salavat Neftekhim Petrochemicals Complex come to fruition, with the possibility of cracker capacity of 1mn ta. We previously envisaged capacity growth lagging behind domestic needs, based on petrochemicals demand exceeding GDP growth rates of 6-8%. The impact of the recession, which led to a 10% decline in plastics production to around 4mn tonnes in 2009, combined with average GDP growth rates of around 4% over the next five years, means that overall capacity should rise broadly in line with demand trends.

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Executive Summary . 5
Russia Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry SWOT . 7
Russia Political SWOT 8
Russia Economic SWOT 8
Russia Business Environment SWOT .. 9
Global Petrochemicals Overview .. 10
Petrochemicals Market Overview .. 10
Financial Results 14
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 15
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 15
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) .. 18
European Petrochemicals Overview 20
Russia Market Overview . 26
Petrochemicals Trade .. 28
Market Structure . 28
Table: Russia’s Cracker Capacity, 2009-2015 (‘000 tpa) .. 29
Foreign Investment 29
Business Environment 30
Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings .. 30
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings 30
Russia’s Foreign Investment Policy .. 32
Foreign Trade Regime . 33
Tariffs/Non-Tariff Barriers 33
Tax Regime 34
Industry Trends And Developments 36
Upstream 36
Olefins And Aromatics . 39
Polymers . 42
Fertiliser . 44
Industry Forecast Scenario 45
Table: Russia’s Petrochemicals Sector, 2008-2015 .. 47
Macroeconomic Outlook . 50
Table: Russia – Economic Activity 2006-2015 . 52
Company Monitor 53
Lukoil 53
Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNK) .. 57
Salavatnefteorgsintez 59
Sibur Holding .. 60
Glossary Of Terms . 62
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 62
BMI Methodology 63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 63
Cross Checks 64
Business Environment Ratings . 65
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale . 65
Weighting 66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 66
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