Russia Power Report Q4 2011

BMI View: Challenges of all types and at all levels face Russia and its power sector. There is no disputing the size of the market and the potential for investment by domestic and foreign companies alike. Infrastructure is old and inefficient, so a mountain of capital is needed. However, the liberalisation process has seemingly faltered. Allowing state gas monopoly Gazprom to strengthen its grip on the power industry is not seen as appositive move by many outside of Russia, while price controls could persist in the retail segment.
Renewables have a long way to go before they make a meaningful contribution, leaving Russia dependent on a potent mix of fossil fuels, nuclear and conventional large-scale hydro-power. Japan’s problems with nuclear are unlikely to influence Russian energy policy, while the abundance of gas and coal resources point to a continuing strong role in the overall electricity generation mix.
In fact, efforts by the state to maximise the export potential of its natural resources suggest an increased focus on nuclear energy and hydro generation of the next decade. Large-scale foreign involvement in such projects seems unlikely and higher power prices may be needed to justify the necessary investment. During the period 2011-2015, Russia’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 2.21%, reaching 1,074TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 3.5% gain in nuclear and a 3.9% rise in renewables generation, offsetting a near-1.5% average decline in oil-fired electricity supply. Coaland gas-fired power are each expected to increase by 1.2% and 2.8% per annum.
Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 4.6%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.4% between 2011 and 2020. The population is expected to fall slightly from the current level of 141mn to 136mn during the period, but net power consumption looks set to increase from 863TWh to 942Wh in 2015, and to 1,056TWh by 2020. During the period 2011-2015, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 2.21%, but accelerating somewhat later in the decade to an average 2.31% in 2016-2020.
Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which barely matches the underlying demand trend, Russia’s power supply surplus is expected to be largely unchanged over the medium term. A broadly stable percentage of transmission and distribution losses of around 11.3% will slow the rate of build-up in export capability. The theoretical net export potential by 2015 is put at 10.6TWh, which should rise to 17.7TWh by 2020.

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Russia Power SWOT 6
Global Industry Overview . 7
OECD Markets To Underperform, Coal and Nuclear Under Scrutiny 7
Regional Industry Overview .. 11
Steady But Moderate Growth In CEE, Turkey Under Scrutiny . 11
Industry Forecast Scenario 15
Russia Snapshot (Macro) 15
Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 15
Country Snapshot: Power Sector 15
Russia Forecast Scenario .. 16
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity. 16
Table: Russia Total Generation Data, 2008-2015 . 16
Table: Russia Total Generation Data, 2013-2020 . 18
Table: Russia Electricity Generating Capacity Data, 2008-2015 21
Table: Russia Electricity Generating Capacity Data, 2013-2020 22
Electricity Consumption.. 28
Table: Russia Total Consumption Data, 2008-2015 . 28
Table: Russia Total Consumption Data, 2013-2020 . 28
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports .. 29
Table: Russia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 .. 29
Table: Russia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020 .. 30
Table: Russia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 . 30
Table: Russia Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2020 .. 30
Key Policies/Market Structure . 32
Regulation And Competition . 32
Pricing . 33
Key Projects Database . 34
Table: : Major Infrastructure Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids 34
Business Environment 37
CEE Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings .. 37
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) .. 38
Russia Power Risk/Reward Ratings .. 41
Rewards .. 41
Risks . 42
Competitive Landscape .. 43
FGC .. 44
Inter RAO UES 44
Gazprom/Mosenergo 45
E.ON . 46
Enel 46
Company Profiles 48
Inter RAO UES 48
Russia Power Report Q4 2011
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Glossary of Terms .. 50
Table: Glossary of Terms 50
Methodology and Sources . 51
Industry Forecasts . 51
Power Industry - Data Methodology . 52
Generation and Consumption Data .. 52
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 53
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 54
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 56
Sources 57
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