This latest Russia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 47.9% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 70.3% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8. 9mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bcm, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 226bcm by the end of the period. Russia’s share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 62.1%, while its share of production is put at 72.5%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 57%, with the country accounting for 67.5% of supply.
State-controlled Gazprom has a virtual monopoly over gas transportation and exports. With it being the main provider, we see gas output rising from an estimated 560bcm in 2010 to 650bcm by 2015. Russian domestic companies control most of Russia’s oil production. Rosneft is the main state-controlled oil producer. The companies delivered 2010 output of crude oil and condensates averaging an estimated 10.3mn b/d. Oil production seems likely to rise only slowly over the next few years. Our 2015 production forecast is for 10.60mn b/d.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Russian oil production of 5.5%, with output rising slowly from an estimated 10.3mn b/d in 2010 to a peak of 11.0mn b/d in 2016/17, before easing to 10.8mn b/d by 2020. Oil consumption during the period is forecast to rise by 28.3%, permitting exports peaking at 7.59mn b/d in 2016. Gas consumption is expected to be up from an estimated 396bcm to 471bcm by 2020, providing export potential peaking at 224bcm in 2015.
Russia holds fifth place, below Poland and Turkey, in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It holds fifth place, below Turkey, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, aided by unrivalled hydrocarbons resources. Its oil and gas reserves account for much of the upstream score, but licensing, privatisation and country risk factors are less impressive. Medium-term scope exists for Russia to overtake Turkey and Poland above it, but it is likely to remain behind Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Russia is at the top of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream Business Environment Ratings, but shares first place with Turkey and is just one point above Poland. There are a few particularly high scores, and there is some risk from Poland over the longer term. There are excellent scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, population and nominal GDP.

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Executive Summary 6
SWOT Analysis 8
Russia Political SWOT 8
Russia Economic SWOT 8
Russia Business Environment SWOT 9
Russia Energy Market Overview 10
Regional Energy Market Overview 13
Oil Supply And Demand 13
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) 14
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) 15
Oil: Downstream 16
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 16
Gas Supply And Demand 17
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) 17
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) 18
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 19
Business Environment Ratings 20
Central/Eastern Europe Region 20
Composite Scores 20
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 21
Upstream Scores 22
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating 22
Russia Upstream Rating – Overview 23
Russia Upstream Rating – Rewards 23
Russia Upstream Rating – Risks 23
Downstream Scores 24
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating 24
Russia Downstream Rating – Overview 25
Russia Downstream Rating – Rewards 25
Russia Downstream Rating – Risks 25
Business Environment 26
Property Rights 26
Intellectual Property Rights 27
Corruption 27
Infrastructure 28
Labour Force 29
Foreign Investment Policy 29
Foreign Trade Regime 30
Tax Regime 30
Security Risk 31
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Oil And Gas Reserves 33
Oil Supply And Demand 33
Gas Supply And Demand 34
LNG 35
Refining And Oil Products Trade 36
Revenues/Import Costs 36
Table: Russia Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 37
Other Energy 38
Russia Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 41
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 42
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook 42
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 43
Oil Refineries 43
Table: Refineries In Russia 47
Oil Terminals/Ports 48
Oil Pipelines 49
LNG Terminals 51
Gas Pipelines 53
Macroeconomic Outlook 55
Table: Russia – Economic Activity 57
Competitive Landscape 58
Executive Summary 58
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Russian Oil And Gas Sector 60
Overview/State Role 61
Licensing And Regulation 61
Government Policy 65
International Energy Relations 67
Gas Transit And Marketing 70
Oil Transit 76
Table: Key Upstream Players 78
Key Downstream Players 79
Company Monitor 80
Gazprom 80
Gazprom Neft 90
Rosneft 94
Lukoil 99
TNK-BP 104
Tatneft 109
Total111
Imperial Energy 114
Novatek 117
Russneft121
Surgutneftegaz – Summary 124
Sistema – Summary 124
Bashneft – Summary 125
Itera – Summary 126
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary 126
ExxonMobil – Summary 127
Transneft – Summary 128
Sakhalin Energy – Summary 128
Wintershall – Summary 129
BP – Summary 129
Lundin Petroleum – Summary 130
Irkutsk Oil Company – Summary 130
Aladdin Oil & Gas – Summary 131
PetroNeft – Summary 131
Alliance Oil – Summary 132
Others – Summary 132
Former IOC Partners – Summary 133
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 135
Regional Oil Demand 135
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) 135
Regional Oil Supply 136
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) 136
Regional Refining Capacity 137
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 137
Regional Gas Demand 138
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) 138
Regional Gas Supply 139
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) 139
Russia Country Overview139
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 140
Glossary Of Terms 141
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology 142
Introduction 142
Ratings Overview 142
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 143
Indicators 144
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 144
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology 145
BMI Methodology 147
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 147
Energy Industry 147
Cross Checks 148
Sources 148
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