Russia Tourism Report Q4 2011

Tourism Overview Following a sharp fall in foreign visitor arrivals to Russia in 2009, there was a modest recovery in 2010. Latest national data for Q111 record quite strong growth of 13% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the number of foreign visitors, although this partly reflects a rebound from a low base in Q110 (when there was negative year-on-year growth). Regarding major source markets outside the former Soviet Union, Finland and China recorded strong growth in arrivals of 14% and 10% y-o-y respectively, while visitors from Poland were up a massive 65% y-o-y. Concerning the Baltic states, although Estonia recorded 10% y-o-y growth in arrivals, both Lithuania and Latvia recorded negative growth of -8% and -25% y-o-y respectively.
Forecast Scenario The buoyancy of growth in foreign visitors in Q1 (along with the strength of other indicators) has contributed to BMI raising its forecast for growth in arrivals to Russia in 2011 to around 6%, with growth slowing marginally in 2012. In an important source market for tourists, the eurozone, steady economic growth of 2.1% is forecast for 2011, with growth expected to slow slightly in 2012. Despite the sharp sell-off of the Russian rouble in July and August 2011, due to the sharp spike in financial market volatility, the currency then recovered. Currently, we see further upside for the rouble against the eurodollar basket against which it is managed. Further, over the next few years we believe that on balance the fundamentals for the Russian rouble remain appreciatory. The positive outlook for the rouble is likely to be an important factor constraining strong growth in foreign tourism over the longer term.
Aircraft Safety Russia’s poor aircraft safety record continues. In June a Tupolev TU-134A, flown by local carrier RusAir (which specialises in charter flights), operating for Russian airline RusLine, crashed on landing at Petrozavodsk Airport in the north of the country, while en route from Moscow Domodedovo Airport. Of the 43 passengers and nine crew, 44 people on board died. In August, an Antonov An-24, operated by domestic carrier IrAero and carrying 36 people, overran the runway and broke apart, injuring 12 people when it tried to land at Ignatyevo Airport in Blagoveschensk, a city on the Amur River that separates Russia from China.
Moscow Domodedovo Airport After a significant rebound in passenger traffic at Moscow Domodedovo Airport in 2010, latest data for the first seven months of 2011 show numbers up a marked 15.5% y-o-y. The strongest growth in international passenger traffic (66% y-o-y) was on the following routes: Antalya, Barcelona, Munich, Frankfurt and Pafos. The domestic routes that witnessed the most buoyant growth were Krasnodar, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Makhachkala and Rostov-on-Don. The number of passengers on these routes increased almost 37% y-o-y compared with the same period in 2010.
Aeroflot/Transaero Airlines Russian national carrier Aeroflot produced a solid set of financial results for 2010, with a near threefold increase in net profit compared with a year earlier, to US$253mn. Revenues totalled over US$4.3bn, up 29% on 2009, while total operating costs increased by 24.5% y-o-y to around US$3.8bn. Also in 2010, Russian carrier Transaero Airlines recorded total revenue of RUB60.9bn (US$2.0bn), up a considerable 57% y-o-y. Operating profit though declined to around RUB2.7bn (US$87mn), from RUB3.5bn (US$117mn) a year earlier. Latest results for H111 show further strong revenue growth of 31.4% compared with the same period in 2010.
Accommodation Developments In July it was reported that a consortium comprising of three California-based companies – the Goddard Group, ProFun Management Group and Moschanko Investment Group – are investing up to US$2.5bn in a 600-acre theme park and hotel complex called Magic World Russia, 50km outside of Moscow. Work on the development, which is subject to approval by the government, will commence in summer 2012 (including two hotels: a five-star property and a mid-scale water park resort) and is scheduled for completion in 2016. Magic World Russia is designed to attract 10-12mn visitors a year.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Russia Tourism SWOT 7
Russia Political SWOT 8
Russia Economic SWOT 8
Russia Business Environment SWOT 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Arrivals 12
Table: Arrivals Data, 2008-2015 12
Accommodation 14
Table: Accommodation Data, 2008-2015 14
Expenditure 15
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2008-2015 15
Inbound Tourism 16
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2008-2015 16
Outbound Tourism 18
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015 18
Market Overview – Travel 20
Commercial Airlines 23
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 27
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl) 28
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bbl) 30
Market Overview – Hospitality 31
Accommodation 31
Accommodation Developments 32
Gaming 35
Infrastructure 35
Business Environment Outlook 38
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 38
BMI’s Security Ratings 38
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 39
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 40
Russia’s Security Risk Ratings 40
City Terrorism Ratings 41
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index 42
Europe Security Overview 43
Global Assumptions, Q4 2011 49
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 50
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 51
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 51
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 51
Developed States 52
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 53
Emerging Markets 54
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 55
Company Profiles 56
Aeroflot 56
S7 Airlines 59
Transaero 61
BMI Methodology 63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63
Tourism Industry 63
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 64
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 65
Table: Weighting of Components 66
City Terrorism Ratings 66
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology 68
Sources 68
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