BMI’s commercial banking forecast series covers 59 countries accounting for 80% of global GDP. Each report, researched at source, features BMI’s independent assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2014 for the commercial banking sector in each market. Using its expertise in both country risk and financial markets analysis, BMI has created exclusive models to forecast a wealth of key variables on the commercial banking sector. Historic and forecast data are provided for the sector’s total asset and liability growth, client loans, and client deposits. Forecasts for key ratios including the loan-deposit ratio and the loan-asset ratio are also included, as well as core macro-economic forecasts. Data is presented in both local currency and US dollar terms.
Each report examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government policy and the regulatory environment.
Central to BMI’s analysis are our unique Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings. BMI’s unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rating provides a clear, quantified, independent assessment of the opportunities and dangers of operating in each market. The methodology draws together our in-depth knowledge of competitive pressures, our comprehensive industry market forecasts, and our Country Risk team’s unrivalled analysis of economic, political and operational risks.
The reports also feature profiles of leading banks, covering total assets, liabilities, client deposits, lending, bond holdings, main products and services, competitive positioning and ownership structure.

Report Highlights

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Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (SARbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At April 2010 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2010-2014 (%) 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2010 6
Table: Projected Levels (SARbn) 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Saudi Arabia Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Saudi Arabia Political SWOT 8
Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT 9
Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT 9
Business Environment Outlook 10
Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 10
Table: Saudi Arabia Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 10
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 11
Table: Middle East & Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 12
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 13
Middle East Banking Sector Outlook 16
Table: GCC Commercial Banks Profits, Q109-Q110 (US$mn) 20
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP Ratios 21
Table: Anticipated Developments In 2010 21
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) 22
Table: Comparison Of US$ Per Capita Deposits (Late 2009) 22
Table: Interbank Rates & Bond Yields 23
Islamic Banking 24
Saudi Arabia Banking Sector Outlook 29
Economic Outlook 33
Table: Saudi Arabia Economic Activity, 2007-2014 35
Competitive Landscape 36
Market Structure 36
Protagonists 36
Table: Protagonists In Saudi Arabia’s Commercial Banking Sector 36
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 36
List Of Banks 37
Table: Saudi Banks 37
Table: Branches Of Foreign Banks 37
Company Profiles 38
Al Rajhi Bank 38
Table:Stock Market Indicators 39
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn, unless stated) 39
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 40
Table: Key Ratios (%) 40
Riyad Bank 41
Table: Stock Market Indicators 42
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn, unless stated) 42
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 43
Table: Key Ratios (%) 43
National Commercial Bank 44
Table: Key Statistics For National Commercial Bank, 2007-2008 (SAR ‘000) 45
Samba Financial Group 46
Table: Stock Market Indicators 47
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn, unless stated) 47
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 48
Table: Key Ratios (%) 48
Arab National Bank 49
Table: Key Statistics For Arab National Bank, 2004-2009 (SARmn) 50
Saudi Hollandi Bank 51
Table: Stock Market Indicators 52
Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn, unless stated) 52
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 53
Table: Key Ratios (%) 53
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 54
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 55
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 57

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