Fuelled by the prospect of social unrest, the massive government stimulus programme announced by Riyadh has altered our growth outlook for Saudi Arabia. While the hydrocarbons sector in a very healthy position, the majority of the funds will be allocated to the non-energy sector. As this will feed through into most segments of the economy, we have revised up Saudi Arabia's real economic growth forecasts to 5.0% and 5.1% in 2011 and 2012, from 3.9% and 3.7% previously.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 per capita food consumption growth in local currency = 9.13%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 5.78%.
?? 2011 soft drinks value sales = 10.53%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 10.88%.
?? 2011 mass grocery retail sales = 8.89%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 9.57%
Key Company Trends
Companies Growing Top Line – Some of Saudi Arabia’s largest food and drink companies continued to report strong top and bottom line growth over the H210 (calendar) period. In January 2011, the Middle East’s largest dairy firm by annual sales Almarai reported FY10 (12 months to December 2010) year-onyear (y-o-y) net income growth of more than 17% to SAR1.28bn. Strongly positioned in the dairy sector across the Gulf, and increasingly looking well placed to catch what we anticipate will be a strong pickup in consumer spending in some of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s fastest growing economies (most notably Egypt), Almarai is likely to continue posting double-digit growth over H210.
In June 2010, Saudi Arabia’s Aujan, the largest privately owned soft drinks firm in the Gulf – with estimated group sales of US$600mn in 2009 – announced that it was targeting annual sales of US$1bn by 2012. According to Aujan Chairman Adel Aujan, the firm is an anti cyclical ‘one riyal (US$0.27)’ business. He argues that discretion in 2009 extended largely to higher priced goods, with demand for low cost non-essential goods – such as Aujan’s core range of drinks – holding up well, and in some cases outperforming.
Key Risks to Outlook
Decline In Oil Prices – With Saudi Arabia’s economic fortunes closely linked to oil prices, a sustained decline would hit the economy, and subsequently the outlook for domestic demand.

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BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Saudi Arabia Food Industry SWOT 6
Saudi Arabia Drink Industry SWOT 7
Saudi Arabia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 8
Business Environment 9
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 9
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views 14
Middle East Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 15
Table: Middle East & North Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q311 17
Saudi Arabia’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating 18
Macroeconomic Outlook 19
Table: Measures with impact on private consumption 22
Table: Saudi Arabia - Economic Activity 23
Industry Forecast Scenario 24
Consumer Outlook 24
Food 26
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – 2006-2015 27
Confectionery 28
Table: Confectionery Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2015 28
Drinks 29
Soft Drinks 29
Table: Soft Drinks Sales – Historical Sales & Forecasts, 2006-2015 30
Alcoholic Drinks 31
Hot Drinks 31
Table: Hot Drink Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2015 32
Mass Grocery Retail 33
Table: MGR Sales Indicators – Historical Sales & Forecasts, 2006-2015 34
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2019 35
Trade 36
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2015 36
Food 37
Key Gulf Region Industry Trends And Developments 37
Companies Growing Top Line 37
Diversification Into New Products And Frontier Markets 37
Growing Investment Interest From Non-Regional MNCs 38
Market Overview 39
Food Processing 39
Dairy Processing 39
Agriculture 40
Halal Food 41
Table: Muslim Populations In Select Countries 42
Drink 43
Key Gulf Region Industry Trends And Developments 43
Key Players Growing Strongly 43
Frontier Market Investment Strengthening 43
Market Overview 45
Soft Drinks 45
Hot Drinks 46
Alcoholic Drinks 46
Mass Grocery Retail 47
Key Gulf Region Industry Trends And Developments 47
Frontier Market Investment 47
Consolidation 47
Growing Investment Into Modern Convenience Retailing 48
Market Overview 49
Table: Structure Of Saudi Arabia’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Estimated Sales Value By Format (US$bn), 2004-2009 50
Table: Structure Of Saudi Arabia’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Estimated Sales Value By Format (SARbn), 2004-2009 50
Competitive Landscape 51
Table: Key Players In Saudi Arabia’s Food & Drink Sector 51
Table: Key Players In Saudi Arabia’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector 52
Company Analysis 53
Food 53
Al Safi-Danone 53
SADAFCO – Saudi Dairy & Foodstuff Company 54
Almarai 55
Al Rabie Saudi Foods 56
Drink 57
Aujan 57
Mass Grocery Retail 58
Savola Group – Al Azizia Panda 58
Carrefour MAF – Saudi Arabia 59
BMI Food & Drink Methodology 60
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 60
Ratings Methodology 60
Ratings Overview 60
Ratings System 60
Indicators 60
Table: Limits Of Potential Returns 61
Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns 62
Weighting 63
Table: Weighting 63
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 64
Food & Drink 64
Mass Grocery Retail 64
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 66
Sourcing 67
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