Saudi Arabia Power Report Q1 2012

BMI View: Saudi Arabia is facing up to the realities of its power generation situation and has recognised the need to wean itself off a diet of oil. The country is therefore targeting a substantial contribution from solar energy and is in talks that could result in nuclear reactors joining the electricity mix. It needs to protect the export value of its oil and not expose itself to costly gas imports. Alternative energy sources come at a price, so changes can be expected in the structure of the Saudi power market.
Conventional thermal sources are expected to remain the dominant fuel for electricity generation in the coming years, with many power projects under construction – or planned – that will use oil or gas. Unlike most regional and global players, Saudi Arabia is expected to expand oil-fired generation rather than become too dependent on gas, given an uncertain domestic supply capability. Looking further ahead, nuclear power is a possibility, with 16 reactors at the planning stage, while solar investment looks set to soar.
Key trends and recent developments in the Saudi electricity market include: A consortium led by Saudi-owned ACWA Power has officially started work on the largest independent power project (IPP) globally at Qurayyah, on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia. The 3.9GW combined cycle gas-fired plant is to be developed on a build, own, operate (BOO) basis by a consortium including ACWA Power, Samsung C&T and MENA Fund.
Between 2011 and 2021, Saudi Arabia’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average rate of 4.88%, to reach 349TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 4.7% gain in oil-fired and a 5.1% rise in gas-fired generation, accompanied by some expansion of renewables-based electricity supply.
Following an estimated 6.3% increase in 2011 real GDP, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.6% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 28.7mn to 34.1mn during the same period, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 201TWh to 255TWh by 2016, rising further to 319TWh by 2021. During the 2011-2016 period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 5.07%, but will slow later in the decade to an average of 4.43% in 2016- 2021.
Saudi Arabia could be faced with a near-term power supply shortfall, in part due to the forecast rise in net generation, the growth of which barely matches the underlying demand trend. Over the medium- to longer-term, increased investment could eradicate the shortfall and potentially provide some modest export capability. A broadly stable percentage of transmission and distribution of around 8.7% will help balance the market. The theoretical net export capability by 2016 is estimated at 1.1TWh, but there is some risk of a renewed small-scale shortfall by 2021.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Saudi Arabia Power SWOT 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview 11
Industry Forecast Scenario 16
Saudi Arabia Snapshot (Macro) 16
Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 16
Country Snapshot: Power Sector 16
Saudi Arabia Forecast Scenario 17
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 17
Table: Saudi Arabia Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 17
Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts 19
Table: Saudi Arabia Electrcity Generation Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 21
Table: Saudi Arabia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 22
Electricity Consumption 27
Table: Saudi Arabia Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 27
Table: Saudi Arabia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts 27
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 29
Table: Saudi Arabia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 29
Table: Saudi Arabia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 29
Table: Saudi Arabia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015 29
Table: Saudi Arabia Trade Data And Forecasts 29
Key Policies/Market Structure 31
Regulation and Competition 31
Key Projects Database 32
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects 32
Business Environment 37
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 37
Mea Power Risk/Return Ratings 37
Saudi Arabia Power Risk/Reward Ratings 41
Rewards 41
Risks 41
Competitive Landscape 42
Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) 43
Glossary of Terms 44
Table: Glossary of Terms 44
Methodology And Sources 45
Industry Forecasts 45
Power Industry - Data Methodology 46
Generation and Consumption Data 46
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 47
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 48
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 50
Saudi Arabia Power Report Q1 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Sources 51
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