We forecast that Saudi Arabia will account for 37.7% of Middle East regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 36.2% of supply. Middle East regional oil use rose to an estimated 7.6mn b/d in 2010. It should average 7.9mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 and then climb to around 8.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 22.83mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 24.5mn b/d in 2010. After an estimated 25.7mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 30.5mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 17.85mn b/d. This total will have eased to an estimated 16.88mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.54mn b/d by 2015. Iraq has the greatest export growth potential, followed by Qatar.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 391bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 487bcm targeted for 2015, representing 25% growth. Production of an estimated 455bcm in 2010 should reach 642bcm in 2015 (+41%), which implies net exports rising to 154bcm by the end of the period. Saudi Arabia's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been 21.5%, while its share of production is put at 18.4%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.7%, with the country accounting for 15.0% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
We initially set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and to US$97.50/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$101.50/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being.
Saudi Arabian real GDP rose by 3.8% in 2010 and we forecast 3.2% average annual GDP growth from 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from 2.79mn b/d in 2010 to 3.38mn b/d in 2015, representing up to 3.0% annual growth beyond 2009 and broadly matching our underlying economic assumptions.
State-owned Saudi Aramco is wholly responsible for oil and liquids production, which is forecast to rise from an estimated 9.88mn b/d in 2010 to 10.45mn b/d by 2015. There is no significant foreign involvement in the upstream oil segment, although international oil companies (IOCs) could have a role in future gas field development and are major players in refining and petrochemicals. Gas production should reach 87bcm by 2015, up from 79bcm in 2010. Consumption should match the trend, leaving Saudi Arabia with no import requirement or export potential during the period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Saudi Arabian oil production of 19.5%, with volumes rising steadily to 11.96mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption is set to increase by 39.2%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% a year towards the end of the period and the country using 3.91mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 84bcm to 127bcm by the end of the period. Demand growth of 51.3% from 2010-2020 will provide a balanced market throughout the period.
Saudi Arabia now takes eighth place, ahead only of Kuwait, in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs), which combine upstream and downstream scores. The country is ranked a surprising last place, behind Kuwait, in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. It clearly has an unrivalled oil resource and production position, but the lack of upstream opportunities mean the country is stuck firmly at the bottom of the table. It is six points behind Kuwait and shows few signs of having the ability to challenge its rival. Saudi Arabia is in the upper half of the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, with a few high scores and further progress up the rankings a medium-term possibility. It is ranked, fourth above the UAE, thanks largely to high scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand and nominal GDP. Healthy country risk factors help bolster the overall score.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Saudi Arabia Political SWOT 9
Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT 10
Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview 11
Regional Energy Market Overview 13
Oil Supply And Demand 13
Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) 14
Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) 15
Oil: Downstream 16
Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 16
Gas Supply And Demand 17
Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) 17
Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) 18
Liquefied Natural Gas 19
Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 19
Business Environment Ratings 20
Middle East Region 20
Composite Scores 20
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 21
Upstream Scores 22
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating 22
Saudi Arabia Upstream Rating – Overview 23
Saudi Arabia Upstream Rating – Rewards 23
Saudi Arabia Upstream Rating – Risks 23
Downstream Scores 24
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating 24
Saudi Arabia Downstream Rating – Overview 25
Saudi Arabia Downstream Rating – Rewards 25
Saudi Arabia Downstream Rating – Risks 25
Business Environment 26
Legal Framework 26
Foreign Investment Policy 29
Tax Regime 30
Security Risk 30
Industry Forecast Scenario 31
Oil And Gas Reserves 31
Oil Supply And Demand 32
Gas Supply And Demand 32
Refining And Oil Products Trade 34
Revenues And Import Costs 35
Table: Saudi Arabia’s Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 36
Other Energy 37
Table: Saudi Arabia’s Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 38
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 39
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook 39
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 40
Oil Refineries 40
Table: Refineries In Saudi Arabia 40
Oil Processing Facilities 43
Service Stations 43
Oil Terminals/Ports 43
Oil Pipelines 44
Gas Pipelines 45
Macroeconomic Outlook 47
Table: Saudi Arabia – Economic Activity 49
Competitive Landscape 50
Table: Key Players In Saudi Arabia’s Oil And Gas Sector 51
Overview/State Role 51
Licensing And Regulation 52
Government Policy 52
International Energy Relations 53
Table: Key Upstream Players 55
Table: Key Downstream Players 55
Company Monitor 56
Saudi Aramco 56
Shell Saudi Arabia 61
ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia 64
Chevron 67
Total – Summary 69
Eni – Summary 69
ConocoPhillips – Summary 70
BP – Summary 70
Repsol YPF – Summary 70
Lukoil – Summary 70
Sinopec – Summary 71
Sumitomo – Summary 71
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 72
Regional Oil Demand 72
Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d) 72
Regional Oil Supply 73
Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d) 73
Regional Refining Capacity 74
Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 74
Regional Gas Demand 75
Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm) 75
Regional Gas Supply 76
Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm) 76
Saudi Arabia Country Overview 76
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 77
Glossary Of Terms 78
Business Environment Ratings Methodology 79
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 79
Ratings Overview 79
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 80
Indicators 80
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings – Methodology 81
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 82
BMI Forecast Modelling 84
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 84
Energy Industry 84
Cross checks 85
Sources 85
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