Although foreign retailers and manufacturers continue to show interest in the Serbian market, the weak dinar and high inflation rates are impeding growth in the food and drink sector, mass grocery retail values and company performance in the short term, with recovery dependent on wider economic conditions and an improvement in consumer confidence. As high inflation and a weak labour market undermine consumer spending, we caution that private consumption will most likely remain the weak link in the country’s economic recovery for the duration of the year.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 per capita food consumption: +3.71%; forecast to 2015: +17.41%
?? 2011 alcoholic drinks sales: +3.68%; forecast to 2015: +16.31%
?? 2011 soft drinks sales: +4.94%; forecast to 2015: +23.8%
?? 2011 mass grocery retail sales: +8.0%; forecast to 2015: +41.9%
Key Industry Trends
Delhaize Finalises Move Into Serbia: Belgian mass grocery retailer Delhaize Group has recently concluded the takeover of Serbian retailer Delta Maxi Group in a deal worth EUR932.5mn (US$1.31bn). The acquisition adds about 450 outlets in Serbia, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Albania to Delhaize’s other Central and Eastern European operations in Greece and Romania. CEO Pierre-Olivier Beckers said the acquisition is a perfect fit with the retailer’s new strategy, under which it aims to accelerate profitable revenue growth. He said it will enable Delhaize to become a major player in the South East Europe retail market.
Nectar Expands Presence In South East Europe: Serbian leading juice and soft drinks producer Nectar is set to receive a fund of up to EUR35mn from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The fund will support Nectar in acquiring Slovenian premium and mainstream branded juice and food manufacturer Fructal, which has a business presence in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Serbia. This reflects Nectar’s ambition to carry out an expansion drive in the South East Europe region and consolidate its operations, which will in turn allow it to create operational synergies and improve performance. Slovenian drinks group Pivovarna Laska agreed to sell its Fructal business to Nectar in July 2011 for EUR35.3mn.
Key Risks To Outlook
Slowdown In External Demand: A significant slowdown in external demand would present a large headwind to our economic growth forecasts for Serbia. The country’s economic recovery has been mainly export-led on account of depressed private consumption and ongoing government fiscal austerity measures.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Serbia Food Industry SWOT 9
Serbia Drink Industry SWOT 10
Serbia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 11
Business Environment 12
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 12
Table: BMI’s Core Views For The Food & Drink Industry 19
CEE Food & Drink Business Environment Overview 20
Table: Emerging Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q411 23
Serbia’s Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings 24
Macroeconomic Outlook 25
Table: Economic Activity 27
Industry Forecast Scenario 28
Consumer Outlook 28
Food 29
Food Consumption 29
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 30
Confectionery 30
Table: Confectionery Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 31
Canned Food 32
Table: Canned Food & Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 32
Table: Snack Foods 33
Trade 34
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data and Forecasts 35
Drink 35
Alcoholic Drinks 35
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 36
Soft Drinks 36
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 38
Hot Drinks 39
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 39
Mass Grocery Retail 40
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts 42
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format (% Of Total) 42
Food 43
Key Industry Trends and Developments 43
EBRD Loans To Major Serbian Agri Player 43
Some Room For Investment Growth 43
Serbia Pushes Organic Food Development 45
Serbian Confectionery Market To Struggle In 2011 46
Market Overview 46
Food Consumption 46
Food Production 47
Leading Players 47
Confectionery 49
Canned Food 50
Trade 50
Agriculture 51
Table: Meat 52
Dairy Production 54
Table: Dairy 54
Table: Oils And Fats 56
Sugar Production 57
Organic Agriculture 58
Drink 60
Key Industry Trends and Developments 60
Nectar Expands Presence In South East Europe 60
Beer Industry Aiming To Attract Investment 60
Beverage Producers to Use Serbia As a Base for Exports 61
Market Overview 61
Alcoholic Drinks 61
Beer 61
Spirits 63
Wine 64
Soft Drinks 64
Hot Drinks 66
Mass Grocery Retail 68
Key Industry Trends and Developments 68
Delhaize Completes Delta Maxi Acquisition 68
Serbia A New Expansion Frontier 69
Hypermarkets And Private Label On The Rise 70
Market Overview 71
Leading Players 72
Table: Mercator – Private Label As % Of Product Sales In Foreign Markets 73
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets 74
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Retail Format 75
Table: Value Sales Per Outlet, 2010 Estimate 76
Competitive Landscape 77
Table: Key Players in Serbia’s Food & Drink Sector 77
Table: Key Players in Serbia’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector 79
Company Monitor 80
Food 80
Bambi 80
Mondi Serbia 82
Mladost-Sid 83
Sunoko 84
Drink 85
Coca-Cola/IBP Beograd AD 85
Beogradska Industrija Piva (BIP) 86
Carlsberg Serbia/Pivara Celarevo 87
Arteska International Company 89
BB Minaqua 90
Knjaz Miloš 91
Mass Grocery Retail 92
Mercator 92
Veropoulos 94
Delta Holding 95
Metro 97
BMI Methodology 98
Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings 98
Ratings Methodology 98
Ratings Overview 98
Ratings System 98
Indicators 98
Table: Limits Of Potential Returns 99
Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns 100
Weighting 101
Table: Weighting 101
BMI Food And Drink Industry Glossary 102
Food And Drink 102
Mass Grocery Retail 102
BMI Forecasting 104
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 104
Sourcing 105
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