Political Ratings The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a prerequisite for a stable economy and business environment. The long-term political rating considers more structural elements such as: Is there a functioning democracy? Are there free and fair elections? Is there separation between party and state? Have recent governments pursued similar, enlightened policies amid a stable political environment? The short-term political rating considers more transient influences such as: Have there been recent large-scale demonstrations or strikes? To what extent have these threatened the political status quo? Is unemployment currently a potential source of political instability? What is the current position in the political cycle – to what extent is this contributing to political risk? Is the government having trouble passing legislation?
Economy Ratings The economy ratings assess the degree to which the country approximates the ideal of non-inflationary growth with contained fiscal and external deficits and manageable debt ratios. The ratings use as raw material historical data and forecasts fed in from BMI's country databases: as historical data are revised and forecasts change, so the ratings change. Factors in the long-term rating include GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real interest rates, exchange rates, the fiscal balance, the current account balance and external debt. A number of other structural factors are also thrown into the equation, including dependence on the primary sector, reliance on commodity imports, reliance on a single export sector and central bank independence. The factors included in the short-term rating are a subset of those in the long-term rating.
Business Environment Rating The business environment rating is a broad indicator of the investment climate, for both domestic and foreign players. While areas such as competitiveness, finance, openness and environment comprise the bulk of the rating, there is also an important feed from the political and economy ratings. The factors considered include: the state of the national infrastructure, the education system, cronyism/ corruption, red tape, the legal framework, property rights, market access and the corporate tax regime.

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Executive Summary – Serbia. 7
Core Views7
Major Forecast Changes..7
Key Risks To Outlook7
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook – Serbia 9
SWOT Analysis.. 9
BMI Political Risk Ratings.. 9
Domestic Politics.. 10
Relations With Kosovo To Slow EU Accession Process.10
TABLE: SERBIA POLITICAL OVERVIEW.10
Long-Term Political Outlook.. 12
Unresolved Tensions To Weigh On Risk Profile12
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook – Serbia. 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 13
Economic Activity. 16
TABLE: SERBIA ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.16
Fiscal Policy . 18
TABLE: SERBIA FISCAL POLICY.19
Balance Of Payments.. 20
TABLE: SERBIA CURRENT ACCOUNT.20
Monetary Policy.. 22
TABLE: SERBIA MONETARY POLICY22
Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast – Serbia. 25
The Serbian Economy To 2021. 25
TABLE: SERBIA LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS25
Chapter 1.4: Business Environment – Serbia .. 27
SWOT Analysis 27
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings.. 27
Business Environment Outlook 28
Institutions 28
Infrastructure .. 30
Market Orientation 31
Operational Risk 33
Chapter 1.5: Key Sectors – Serbia 35
Defence & Security 35
TABLE: SERBIA DEFENCE EXPENDITURE39
Freight Transport 40
TABLE: SERBIA AIR FREIGHT42
TABLE: SERBIA ROAD FREIGHT.42
Other Key Sectors. 43
Executive Summary – Montenegro.. 45
Core Views.45
Major Forecast Changes45
Key Risks To Outlook.45
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook – Montenegro. 47
SWOT Analysis 47
BMI Political Risk Ratings 47
Domestic Politics.. 48
TABLE: MONTENEGRO POLITICAL OVERVIEW.48
Long-Term Political Outlook.. 49
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook – Montenegro 53
SWOT Analysis 53
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 53
Economic Activity. 54
TABLE: MONTENEGRO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY54
Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast – Montenegro 57
TABLE: MONTENEGRO LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS57
Chapter 2.4: Business Environment – Montenegro . 59
SWOT Analysis 59
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings.. 59
Business Environment Outlook 60
Institutions 60
Infrastructure .. 62
Market Orientation 64
Operational Risk 66
Executive Summary – Kosovo 67
Core Views.67
Major Forecast Changes67
Key Risks To Outlook.67
Chapter 3.1: Political Outlook – Kosovo . 69
SWOT Analysis 69
BMI Political Risk Ratings 69
Domestic Politics . 70
TABLE: KOSOVO POLITICAL OVERVIEW..70
Long-Term Political Outlook . 71
Chapter 3.2: Economic Outlook – Kosovo . 75
SWOT Analysis 75
Economic Activity. 76
TABLE: KOSOVO GDP BY EXPENDITURE, CURRENT PRICES BREAKDOWN..76
Chapter 3.3: 10-Year Forecast – Kosovo. 79
TABLE: KOSOVO LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.79
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions . 81
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS.81
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST..82
TABLE: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS..82
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST.83
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