Core Views
The crux of Serbia’s economic recovery continues to rest on external demand and, to a growing extent, investment expenditures.
Household expenditure has remained firmly in recessionary territory, and we only expect a gradual recovery in consumer spending. We remain sanguine in our expectations for real GDP growth of 3.2% in 2011.
While Serbia’s path to accession into the European Union remains far from clear, we see the country continuing its convergence with Western European norms and do not rule out the country being granted EU candidate country status this coming November, particularly in light of the arrest of Ratko Mladic in May 2011.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised downwards our end-2011 interest rate expectations for the National Bank of Serbia’s key two-week repo rate to 10.00% (from 14.00% previously) as inflationary pressures have started to ease and the central bank has begun a monetary loosening cycle in early June.
On the back of our revised trajectory for monetary policy this year, we have updated our expectations for the dinar. We now expect the dinar to average RSD 103.50/EUR (versus RSD 101.00/EUR previously).
Key Risks To Outlook
A significant slowdown in external demand would present a large headwind to our economic growth forecasts for Serbia. The country’s economic recovery has been mainly export-led on account of depressed private consumption and ongoing government fiscal austerity measures.
A sharper rise in government spending than expected, in response to flagging political popularity amongst the domestic populace, would see household consumption rise more significantly than we currently forecast. However, we stress that this is not our core view and broadly expect the current government to stick to its fiscal consolidation plans. Moreover, fiscal slippage would also likely lead to less monetary policy easing than we currently expect.
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Executive Summary 7
Core Views:5
Major Forecast Changes:5
Key Risks To Outlook:5
Chapter 11: Political Outlook - Serbia 9
SWOT Analysis 9
BMI Political Risk Ratings 9
Domestic Politics 10
Mladic’s Arrest: Key Implications
The arrest of former Bosnian Serb military commander Ratko Mladic is a major boost for Serbia’s reintegration with the West, and EU membership However, EU accession is still many years away
Long-Term Political Outlook 10
Table: Political Overview12
Chapter 12: Economic Outlook - Serbia 15
SWOT Analysis 15
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 15
Economic Activity 16
Growth Forecast On Track
We are holding to our expectations for Serbia to experience real GDP growth of 32% in 2011, as a resilient external environment buttresses industrial production and spurs greater private investment
Table: SERBIA – ECONOMIC ACTIVITY16
Monetary Policy 17
Table: SERBIA – MONETARY POLICY18
Balance Of Payments 19
Table: SERBIA – CURRENT ACCOUNT19
Regional Investment Climate 21
Chapter 13: 10-Year Forecast - Serbia 23
The Serbian Economy To 2020 23
Table: SERBIA Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts23
Chapter 14: Business Environment - Serbia 25
SWOT Analysis 25
Business Environment Outlook 26
Institutions 26
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings26
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating27
Infrastructure 28
Market Orientation 29
Table: Labour Force Quality29
Table: Emerging Europe – Annual FDI Inflows30
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings31
Operational Risk 32
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS32
Chapter 15: Key Sectors - Serbia 33
Pharmaceuticals 33
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-201534
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-201535
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2007-201535
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-201536
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-201536
Telecommunications 37
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts 38
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts 39
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 39
Other Key Sectors 40
Table: SERBIA Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators40
Table: SERBIA Autos Sector Key Indicators40
Table: SERBIA Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators40
Chapter 21: Political Outlook - Montenegro 41
SWOT Analysis 41
BMI Political Risk Ratings 41
Domestic Politics 42
Long-Term Political Outlook 43
Chapter 22: Economic Outlook - Montenegro 45
SWOT Analysis 45
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 45
Fiscal Policy 46
Table: MONTENEGRO – FISCAL POLICY46
Chapter 23: 10-Year Forecast - Montenegro 47
The Montenegrin Economy To 2020 47
Table: Montenegro Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts47
Chapter 24: Business Environment - Montenegro 49
SWOT Analysis 49
Business Environment Outlook 49
Chapter 31: Political Outlook - Kosovo 51
SWOT Analysis 51
BMI Political Risk Ratings 51
Domestic Politics 52
Chapter 32: Economic Outlook - Kosovo 53
SWOT Analysis 53
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 53
Fiscal Policy 54
Table: KOSOVO – FISCAL POLICY54
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions 57
Global Outlook 57
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS57
Table: EMERGING MARKETS AGGREGATE GROWTH58
Table: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST59
Table: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS59
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