Singapore Defence and Security Report Q3 2011

Singapore’s military recruitment strategy is similar to that of Israel, owing to its small population and relatively high defence requirements. The military relies heavily on conscripts and reservists, advanced weaponry and a core of highly trained, professional active military personnel. In addition, the Ministry of Defence maintains a strict zero-growth policy with regards to the military recruitment. This policy has led to increased reliance on unmanned defence technology for the army, navy and air force.
Piracy and terrorism still remain the key security threat for Singapore. The Malacca Strait connecting to Indonesia are classified as one of the world’s main maritime ‘chokepoints’. 2011 is expected to see a further increase in attacks and robberies after a record number in 2010. Government policy will focus on increasing patrols to ward off potential threats.
Singapore's ruling People's Action Party (PAP) won general elections held on May 7, garnering 60.1% of popular votes and 81 out of 87 seats in parliament. This outcome is in line with our expectation and is broadly positive for both economic and political stability.
On the back of a massive kickoff in 2011, we have decided to upgrade Singapore's real GDP growth forecast to 5.9% (the upper end of the government's forecast of 4.0-6.0%) from 5.1% previously. Indeed, preliminary estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) indicate that Singapore's real GDP growth reached 8.5% y-o-y in Q111. Sequentially, there was acceleration in momentum, with real GDP increasing by 23.5% q-o-q on an annualised, seasonally adjusted basis. This pace of growth is unlikely to be sustained as we expect the regional monetary tightening to have an impact on external demand in the coming quarters and we also project a China-led slowdown in H211.

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SWOT Analysis 7
Singapore Security SWOT . 7
Singapore Defence Industry SWOT.. 7
Singapore Political SWOT 8
Singapore Economic SWOT . 8
Singapore Business Environment SWOT .. 9
Global Political Outlook .. 10
Japan After The Quake 11
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 12
Wild Cards To Watch 16
South East Asia Security Overview .. 18
South East Asia In A Global Context 18
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security. 18
Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia .. 27
The Outlook For South East Asia 29
Security Risk Rating . 30
BMI’s Security Ratings 30
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 30
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 31
Singapore’s Risk Ratings 31
City Terrorism Rating .. 32
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index . 33
Political Overview 34
Domestic Politics 34
Long-Term Political Outlook 35
Security Overview .. 38
Internal Security Situation 38
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups . 38
External Security Situation .. 39
Territorial Disputes .. 39
Bilateral And Multilateral Security 40
Table: Actual And Attempted Piracy Attacks, 1996-2006 .. 41
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 43
Armed Forces .. 43
Defence And Military Alliances .. 45
Defence Budget 45
International Deployments . 46
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 46
Market Overview .. 47
Industry Trends And Developments .. 48
Arms Trade Overview .. 49
Procurement Trends And Developments . 49
Industry Forecast Scenario 51
Armed Forces .. 51
Table: Singapore’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) .. 51
Table: Singapore’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 51
Defence Expenditure . 51
Table: Singapore’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 52
Table: Singapore’s Defence Expenditure Scenarios – Relative To % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 53
Defence Trade .. 53
Table: Singapore’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 53
Table: Singapore’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 54
Table: Singapore’s Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn) . 54
Macroeconomic Forecast .. 55
Table: Singapore – Economic Activity, 2007-2015 56
Company Profiles 57
Singapore Technologies Aero .. 57
Singapore Technologies Electronics . 59
Singapore Technologies Kinetics 60
Singapore Technologies Marine . 61
Country Snapshot: Singapore Demographic Data . 63
Section 1: Population 63
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 63
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2000-2030 64
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 64
Table: Education, 2000-2004 .. 64
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 64
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 65
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 65
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) .. 65
BMI Methodology 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 66
Defence Industry . 66
City Terrorism Rating .. 67
Table: Methodology .. 69
Sources 70
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