Singapore Food and Drink Report Q3 2011

We maintain our upbeat near-term and long-term consumer outlook for Singapore. We like its strong domestic demand story, with positives such as high visitor arrivals, continued food and beverage retail sales growth, tight labour market conditions and moderating inflationary pressures supporting demand for consumer-facing players in the near term. Although Singapore has neither a massive nor youthful population to instil dynamic momentum in consumer goods sales, the country’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals and low unemployment paint a positive consumer picture over the longer term.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 Food Consumption = +2.7%, compound annual average growth to 2015 = +2.1%
?? 2011 Alcoholic Drink Sales = +1.3%, compound annual average growth to 2015 = +5.4%
?? 2011 Soft Drink Sales = +1.9%, compound annual average growth to 2015 = +2.5%
?? 2011 Mass Grocery Retail Sales = +2.8%, compound annual average growth to 2015 = +5.0%
Industry Trends & Developments
APB Well Placed to Benefit from Vietnam’s Dynamic Beer Sales – Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) will invest SGD90mn in expanding production at its Ho Chi Minh brewing joint venture by 50%. The company will increase output at the facility, which is a 60:40 joint venture with Saigon Trading Co, to 2.8mn hectolitres (hl) a year, as well as adding a second canning facility and expanded warehouse space. APB's expansion will help it cater for the rapid growth in Vietnamese beer consumption that we expect, both in 2011 and throughout our forecast period to 2015. Robust macroeconomic fundamentals, a hugely attractive demographic profile and a rapid inflow of sector investment combine to make this a highly dynamic market and should offer very exciting rewards for APB.
Inherent Price Sensitivity Supports Demand for Private Labels – Tapping into the price sensitivity of the Singapore consumer, local supermarket leader NTUC Fairprice aims to increase its private label range from 365 to over 3,000 items by 2015. Although already enjoying a high level of income, the Singapore consumer is generally characterised by a high degree of price sensitivity, contributing to the strong demand for private labels, which are perceived to be cheaper alternatives. By linking up with Delhaize, NTUC can certainly look forward to reaping higher sales from its private labels as it capitalises on the existing brand appeal of Delhaize’s imported house-brand products.

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BMI Industry View . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Singapore Food Industry SWOT . 6
Singapore Drink Industry SWOT 7
Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT . 8
BMI Business Environment Ratings 9
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 9
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views . 14
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 15
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings -Q3 2011 . 19
Singapore’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating . 20
Macroeconomic Outlook 21
Table: Singapore - Economic Activity. 23
Industry Forecast Scenario . 24
Consumer Outlook . 24
Food. 28
Food Consumption 28
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts 29
Canned Food 30
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Sub-Sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts. 31
Confectionery 31
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Sub-Sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts. 32
Organics . 32
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Sub-Sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts. 33
Trade . 33
Table: Singapore Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts 34
Food Processing . 34
Table: Food Production Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts . 35
Drink 35
Hot Drinks 35
Table: Singapore Beverage Sub-Sector Indicators - Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts 36
Alcoholic Drinks . 36
Table: Singapore Beverage Sub-Sector Indicators - Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts 37
Soft Drinks 38
Table: Singapore Beverage Sub-Sector Indicators - Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts 38
Mass Grocery Retail 39
Table: Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Indicators (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts By Format 41
Food 42
Key Industry Trends And Developments 42
Local Food Retailers Having Big Regional Ambitions . 42
AVA Lifting Bans On Imports From Hyogo and Shizuoka 43
Growing Demand for Frozen Food And Organics 43
Market Overview . 44
Agriculture 44
Food Processing . 44
Drink . 46
Key Industry Trends And Developments 46
APB Well Placed To Benefit From Vietnam’s Dynamic Beer Sales . 46
International Expansion The Antidote To Domestic Market Saturation . 47
Singapore An Important Link Towards Fulfilling Regional Ambitions 48
Market Overview . 48
Soft Drinks 48
Alcoholic Drinks . 49
Hot Drinks 49
Mass Grocery Retail 50
Key Industry Trends And Developments 50
Inherent Price Sensitivity Supports Demand For Private Labels . 50
Non-Traditional Retail Concepts A Hit With Singaporeans 51
NTUC Retains A Strong Focus On Expansions . 51
Market Overview . 52
Table: Structure of Singapore's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets 53
Table: Structure of Singapore's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Value (US$bn) 54
Table: Structure of Singapore's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Value (SGDbn) 54
Table: Estimated Average Sales per Outlet by Format, 2010 54
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format 54
Competitive Landscape 55
Table: Key Players in Singapore's Food Sector 55
Table: Key Players in Singapore's Drinks Sector . 56
Table: Key Players in Singapore's MGR Sector 57
Company Profiles 58
Food. 58
Petra Foods 58
Singapore Food Industries (SFI) 64
Drink 65
Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) . 65
Fraser & Neave (F&N) . 68
Mass Grocery Retail 71
NTUC FairPrice . 71
Sheng Siong 75
BMI Food & Drink Methodology 76
Table: Rewards . 77
Table: Risks 78
Weighting . 78
Table: Weighting 79
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary . 80
Food & Drink 80
Mass Grocery Retail 80
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing . 82
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 82
Sourcing . 83
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