Singapore Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010

The latest Singapore Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.63% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015. Regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to rise to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.92mn b/d 2010. It is set to decrease to 7.88mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2010, the region was importing an average 18.15mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 22.34mn b/d in 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. Singapore’s share of gas consumption in 2015 is put at 2.07%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
Singapore’s real GDP growth in 2011 is forecast by BMI at 5.9%, with the average annual increase put at 4.6% in 2011-2015. There is no domestic oil or gas production but there is an active downstream segment, with extensive international oil company (IOC) involvement in refining and petrochemicals. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 1.10mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand and imports are forecast to increase from an estimated 10.5bcm in 2011 to 13.7bcm by 2015.
Between 2011 and 2020, we are forecasting a 28.1% increase in Singapore’s domestic oil consumption from 0.97mn b/d to 1.24mn b/d, with the island’s refining capacity rising from 1.40mn b/d to 1.56mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from around 10.5bcm in 2011 to a possible 19.7bcm by 2020, driven by power generation requirements. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are expected to commence in 2013. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.
Singapore holds 13th place, below Papua New Guinea, in BMI’s composite Risk/Reward Ratings league table. The country ranks equal 13th (alongside Hong Kong) in BMI’s updated upstream ratings, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the limited involvement of the government in upstream oil activities and an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which partly offset the lack of reserves and output growth potential. Singapore shares fourth place with Australia and India in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its relatively high level of oil consumption, increasing gas demand, established modern refining capability, fuels export capability and a relatively low level of retail site intensity.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Singapore Political SWOT 9
Singapore Economic SWOT 10
Singapore Business Environment SWOT 11
Singapore Energy Market Overview 12
Regional Energy Market Overview 15
Oil Supply And Demand 15
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2008-2015 15
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d), 2008-2015 16
Oil: Downstream 17
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2008-2015 17
Gas Supply And Demand 18
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm), 2008-2015 18
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm), 2008-2015 19
Liquefied Natural Gas 20
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm), 2008-2015 20
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 21
Asia Pacific Region 21
Composite Scores 22
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating 22
Upstream Scores 23
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating 23
Singapore Upstream Rating – Overview 23
Singapore Upstream Rating – Rewards 24
Singapore Upstream Rating – Risks 24
Downstream Scores 25
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating 25
Business Environment 26
Legal Framework 26
Infrastructure 28
Labour Force 29
Foreign Investment Policy 30
Tax Regime 31
Security Risk 32
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Oil And Gas Reserves 33
Oil Supply And Demand 33
Gas Supply And Demand 34
LNG 35
Refining And Oil Products Trade 35
Revenues/Import Costs 36
Table: Singapore Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 37
Other Energy 38
Table: Singapore Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 38
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario 38
Long-Term Energy Outlook 38
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 39
Oil Refineries 39
Table: Refineries In Singapore 39
Service Stations 39
Oil Storage Facilities 40
Oil Terminals/Ports 40
LNG Terminals 41
Gas Pipelines 41
Macroeconomic Outlook 42
Table: Singapore – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 44
Competitive Landscape 45
Executive Summary 45
Table: Key Players – Singapore Oil And Gas Sector 46
Overview/State Role 46
Government Policy 47
International Energy Relations 47
Table: Key Downstream Players 48
Company Monitor 49
Singapore Petroleum Company 49
Chevron 51
ExxonMobil Singapore 53
Royal Dutch Shell 55
BG Group – Summary 57
Ramba Energy – Summary 57
KrisEnergy – Summary 57
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 58
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 58
Regional Oil Supply 59
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 59
Regional Refining Capacity 60
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 60
Regional Gas Demand 61
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 61
Regional Gas Supply 62
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 62
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 63
Glossary Of Terms 64
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 65
Ratings Overview 65
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 66
Indicators 66
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 66

Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 67
BMI Methodology 69
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 69
Oil And Gas Industry 69
Cross Checks 70
Sources 70
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]