Singapore Tourism Report Q1 2012

Another Strong Year Tourist arrivals to Singapore remained strong during 2011. Looking at data for January-October, a total of 10,925,045 tourists arrived in Singapore, an increase of 14.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to data from the Singapore Tourism Board (STB). Against this backdrop, we are happy to maintain our estimated of a 12% increase in tourist arrivals for the year as a whole, with perhaps some slight risks to the upside when November and December arrivals are added to the final total.
Looking at individual source markets, there was notably strong growth in arrivals from China (up by 39.4% y-o-y), Taiwan (up 25% y-o-y) and the Philippines (up 29.4% y-o-y) over the 10-month period From this data it is clear that Singapore is benefiting from the establishment of the Resorts World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands integrated resorts, which are doing much to attract tourists to the country. We believe Singapore’s tourism success should continue beyond 2011 as more people choose to visit the new resorts, particularly from other Asian countries. However, we would expect the rate of growth in tourist arrivals to moderate over 2013-2015. We forecast a total of 17.75mn same-day and overnight tourists visiting Singapore in 2015.
New International Cruise Terminal To Boost Tourism Flows In Q212, the International Cruise Terminal (ICT) is scheduled to open. In December 2011, the STB said it had appointed a joint venture between local company SATS and Spanish company Creuers del Port de Barcelona to operate the terminal for 10 years.
Once it is open, the new terminal will double Singapore’s berth capacity and enable larger cruise ships to stop at Singapore. In 2010, about 1mn cruise passengers visited Singapore, with this number expect to grow by about 30% over the next two years, according to the Singapore Cruise Centre (SCC). Royal Caribbean Cruises said it will make Singapore the homeport for its Voyager of the Seas ship, which arrives in Asia in May 2012. The region is considered as a market with significant potential over the coming decade, with the SCC estimating the potential market from India and China alone to be around 74mn passengers.
BMI believes Singapore is well placed to establish itself as a regional hub for cruise ships and we expect a steady increase in the number of cruise passengers arriving in the country over the forecast period through to 2015. Singapore has first-mover advantage as it has been able to complete its new cruise terminal ahead of a rival destination in Hong Kong, where the new cruise terminal is not expect to open until 2013.
Singapore Airlines Launches Low-Cost Carrier In November 2011, Singapore Airlines (SIA) unveiled its long-awaited low-cost airline called Scoot. SIA is hopeful Scoot can start flights on medium- and long-haul routes using an initial fleet of four Boeing 777 aircraft by mid-2012. The airline is working closely with the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) to get its air operator’s certificate by the end of Q112.
Scoot is aimed at young people seeking low-cost travel around Asia. The airline said it ‘will offer great value airfares up to 40% less than legacy carriers’. As such, it is widely believed Scoot will offer a lowcost basic seat price but that passengers will be able to choose to pay for extras such as on-board meals or emergency aisle seating.
Scoot will be managed and run independently from SIA and it will operate from Changi Airport terminal 2. During its first year of operations, the airline hopes to fly to Australasia and China, with destinations across India, Europe and the Middle East to follow over the coming years. Online booking for Scoot flights will start in early 2012.
It remains to be seen how profitable this new venture will be for SIA, with rival Malaysian operator AirAsia having already established a dominant position in the low-cost segment across the region. In addition, SIA already has exposure to low-cost services via its Silk Air subsidiary and its majority shareholding in Tiger Airways. That said, it is clear that demand for low-cost travel is booming in Asia and SIA believes it can use its reputation and capabilities to it advantage in the low-cost segment.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Singapore Tourism SWOT 7
Singapore Political SWOT 8
Singapore Economic SWOT 9
Singapore Business Environment SWOT 10
Industry Forecast Scenario 11
Arrivals 11
Table: Arrivals, 2007-2015 12
Accommodation 12
Table: Hotels Data, 2007-2015 13
Expenditure 13
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015 14
Inbound Tourism 14
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Region, 2007-2015 15
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Country, 2007-2015 (‘000) 15
Attracting The Business Travel And MICE Market 16
Outbound Tourism 17
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2007-2015 17
Table: Resident Departures By Destination Country, 2007-2015 (‘000) 18
Market Overview – Travel 19
Commercial Airlines 19
Budget Airlines 20
Table: Low-Cost Airlines – Key Players, 2011 20
Cruises 21
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 23
Market Overview – Hospitality 26
Accommodation 26
Key Players 26
Integrated Resorts 27
H5N1 Update 29
Business Environment Outlook 30
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 30
BMI’s Security Ratings 31
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 31
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 32
Singapore’s Security Risk Ratings 32
City Terrorism Ratings 33
Table: BMI Asia Pacific City Terrorism Index 34
South Asia Security Overview 35
South Asia In A Global Context 35
External Power Dynamics 45
The Outlook For South Asia 47
Singapore Tourism Report Q1 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Global Assumptions 50
Europe On The Edge 50
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 51
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) 52
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 52
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 52
Developed States 53
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (%chg y-o-y) 54
Emerging Markets 55
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) 56
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2011-2012 (%chg y-o-y) 57
Company Profiles 58
Singapore Airlines 58
Tiger Airways 61
BMI Methodology 63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63
Tourism Industry 63
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 64
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 65
Table: Weighting of Components 66
City Terrorism Ratings 66
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology 68
Sources 68
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