South Africa’s defence force remains the most advanced on the continent and operates with a consistent focus on training and redevelopment, despite budget constraints which limit its expansion. Involvement with neighbouring countries in joint security operations provides further scope for the country to maintain a strong power base. With a long-running domestic weaponry and equipment industry, the defence force is well equipped and able to participate in international trade.
South Africa has worked to meet requirements set by the UN, the EU and its own African Union regarding trade, anti-terrorism measures and security. The country is in an important strategic position due to its geographic location and its long established industries.
Recent revelations of corruption and indiscreet dealings have caused strain between the South African government and both its people and international contacts. Support is dwindling fast for the current President Jacob Zuma. Demonstrations, sometimes violent, are erupting regularly over poor living conditions and a sense of being ignored by the governing party. The likelihood of Zuma being forced to step down as leader of the African National Congress is increasing. However, support for the African National Congress party remains strong.
With a stable democracy in place and much party support for the ruling party, South Africa’s economy has a chance to strengthen and recover from its current fragile position. A series of strikes by key workers has forced the country to increase wages, despite recommendations to the contrary by a banking sector struggling to control inflation. However, commercial industries inside South Africa are long established which provides some stability despite employee strike action and underworld trading.
High unemployment continues to trouble South Africa, coupled with a high rate of disease striking workers in their most productive and profitable years. Wages are low and living conditions very poor. On top of this, the country is working to overcome a vacuum of educated workers created by the apartheid years.

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SWOT Analysis 6
South Africa Security SWOT 6
South Africa Defence Industry SWOT . 6
South Africa Political SWOT .. 7
South Africa Economic SWOT 7
South Africa Business Environment SWOT .. 8
Global Political Outlook . 9
Japan After The Quake 10
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 11
Wild Cards To Watch 15
Security Risk Analysis . 17
BMI’s Security Ratings 17
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings . 17
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 18
South Africa – Security Ratings .. 18
City Terrorism Rating .. 19
Table: BMI’s Africa City Terrorism Index . 20
Political Overview 22
Domestic Politics 22
Long-Term Political Outlook 24
Security Overview .. 28
Internal Security Situation 28
Organised Crime 28
HIV/Aids . 29
Latest Developments . 29
Table: Insurgent Groups In South Africa 30
External Security .. 30
Border Security 30
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 32
Armed Forces .. 32
New Role For The SANDF . 32
Acquisitions .. 33
HIV/Aids . 33
‘Army Vision 2020’ 33
International Deployments . 34
Table: South African Foreign Deployments .. 34
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 35
Market Overview .. 36
Arms Trade Overview .. 37
Industry Trends And Developments .. 38
Procurement Trends And Developments . 40
Air Force 40
Navy .. 41
Army . 41
Latest Developments . 41
Industry Forecast Scenario 42
Armed Forces .. 42
Table: South Africa’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 42
Table: South Africa’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) . 42
Defence Expenditure . 43
Table: South Africa’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 43
Table: South Africa’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 45
Defence Trade .. 45
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 45
Macroeconomic Outlook . 45
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity, 2007-2015 47
Company Profiles 48
Aerosud 48
BAE Systems Land Systems South Africa 49
Denel 50
Grintek Defence & Technologies 52
Reutech 53
Thales South Africa (Pty) Ltd 54
Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data 56
Section 1: Population 56
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 56
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 57
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 57
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .. 57
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 57
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 58
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 58
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) .. 58
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 59
Methodology .. 60
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 60
Defence Industry . 60
City Terrorism Rating .. 61
Table: Methodology .. 63
Sources 63
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