South Africa Power Report Q1 2012

BMI View: Several factors have prompted us to revise our forecasts for South Africa's power sector. Following the release of some new monthly and quarterly data by the country’s statistical agency, we estimate lower generation and consumption for 2011. Furthermore, a number of macroeconomic dynamics have been priced-in in our outlook, reflecting the view of BMI’s Country Risk team that the South African economy will see a notable slowdown to 2.7% real GDP growth in 2012, from an estimated 3.1% in 2011. Macroeconomic headwinds will inevitably take a toll on consumption growth, and we maintain our view that ambitious capacity expansion programmes are likely to incur delays. Nonetheless, developments have shown that the country’s renewables sector is relatively well-positioned to attract interest from international developers, affected by a slowdown of their traditional markets.
BMI maintains our view long-term view that South Africa's electricity consumption will rise sharply in the coming years and that power generation will have to increase substantially to meet demand. Nonetheless, in 2012, South Africa is likely to suffer from the weak global growth environment and potentially high investor risk aversion, with our country risk team anticipating that economic growth in the country will be driven by the demand side (i.e. wholesale and retail trade, financial and personal services) while the supply side (primarily mining and manufacturing) will continue to remain weak. With power demand from energy-intensive industries such as mining and manufacturing constrained, we thus expect that growth in power consumption will remain relatively subdued, reaching 1.07% in 2012.
While risks of delays or even cancellations remain pertinent for South Africa's power sector, the country has embarked in a significant generating capacity expansion programme. Coal is expected to retain its primacy in the energy mix, as many coal-fired power projects are currently planned or under construction. However, we note that since 2010, the country has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and unveiled a number of new renewable targets, including building 17,800MW of new renewable energy capacity by 2030.
In light of these elements, key themes for South Africa’s power sector this quarter include: ?? Despite initial uncertainties, developers from Europe, North America and Asia showed relatively high levels of interest for South Africa’s request for proposals (RFP) for its first consignment of renewable capacity in Q311. The Energy department received 53 bidders for a total of 2,128 megawatts (MW) in projects, and it selected 28 of them in December 2011, with projects totalling 1,416MW.
?? The development of renewable energy in South Africa is to receive a boost after the government joined forces with the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, Norway and the European Investment Bank (EIB) to secure long-term funding for the country’s renewable energy industry. The South African Renewables Initiative (SARi) will enable South Africa to deal with the high cost of renewable projects through low cost loans and other financial instruments, combined with time-limited pay-for-performance grants.
?? In October 2011, The World Bank approved financial assistance of US$250mn to South African power company Eskom under its Clean Technology Fund. The funding is primarily to assist the company in developing a wind and solar plant, which is part of an effort to enhance sources of clean energy. The finances will be used for a 100MW solar power plant in Upington in the Northern Cape Province and a 100MW wind power project at Sere, located north of Cape Town.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
South Africa Power SWOT 7
Global Industry Overview 8
Regional Industry Overview 12
Industry Forecast Scenario 17
South Africa Snapshot (Macro) 17
South Africa Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 17
South Africa Snapshot: Power Sector 17
South Africa Forecast Scenario 18
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 18
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 18
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 20
Table: South Africa Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 23
Table: South Africa Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2021 24
Recommended Preferred Bidders - November 2011 30
Electricity Consumption 33
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 33
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 33
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 35
Table: South Africa Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 35
Table: South Africa Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 35
Table: South Africa Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 35
Table: South Africa Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 35
Key Policies/Market Structure 37
Regulation and Competition 37
Sustainable Energy Policies 37
Pricing 38
Key Projects Database 40
Table: Major Projects - Power Plants & Transmission Grids 40
Business Environment 46
Middle East And Africa Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 46
MEA Power Risk/Return Ratings 47
South Africa’s Power Risk/Reward Rating 51
Rewards 51
Risks 51
Competitive Landscape 52
Company Monitor 55
Eskom 55
Glossary of Terms 58
Table: Glossary of Terms 58
Methodology And Sources 59
Industry Forecasts 59
Power Industry - Data Methodology 60
Generation and Consumption Data 60
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 61
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 61
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 64
Sources 65
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]