The latest South Africa Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 13.68% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 2.16% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.63mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.62mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.09mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.08mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 10.74mn b/d. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 6.02mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 8.15mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 9.85mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 120.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 162.3bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 208.7bcm in 2010 should reach 295.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 105bcm to 151bcm in 2015. In 2010, South Africa consumed an estimated 4.48% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 6.65% by 2015. It contributed an estimated 1.68% to 2010 regional gas production and by 2015 will account for 2.37% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45 per barrel (bbl) for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$97.62/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take.
We estimate that South African real GDP rose by 2.8% in 2010. We are predicting average annual growth of 3.9% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 532,000b/d in 2010 to 560,000b/d in 2015, representing less than 1.5% annual growth that lags our underlying economic assumptions. There is very little domestic crude production, although national companies contribute some 200,000b/d of synthetic oil output. International oil companies (IOCs) are restricted largely to roles in oil refining and fuels distribution. Gas production could reach 7bcm by 2013/14, up from an estimated 3.5bcm in 2010.
Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 5.4bcm to 10.8bcm by the end of the forecast period. Between 2010 and 2020 we are forecasting an increase in South African oil consumption of 10.63%,with demand rising steadily to 589,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Synthetic oil production is set to rise from 178,000b/d to just over 300,000b/d, with crude imports having peaked at 379,000b/d in 2007. Gas consumption is expected to rise to 13bcm by the end of the period, requiring imports to increase from 1.9bcm in 2010 to 8bcm by 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
South Africa now holds first place, above Nigeria, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It is now ranked equal fifth, alongside Algeria, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, despite its virtually non-existent oil and gas resource base. It stands just one point above Angola, so may come under pressure over the medium term. South Africa’s score reflects the low level of state asset ownership and the advanced stage of privatisation, plus an established licensing framework and largely encouraging country risk factors.
South Africa leads the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, with several high scores. It is ranked ahead of Egypt and Algeria, thanks largely to high scores for oil demand, gas consumption growth, non-state competition, deregulation, and nominal GDP. Egypt is just one point below and represents a longer-term threat to South Africa’s rating.

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Executive Summary . 7
SWOT Analysis 9
South Africa Political SWOT .. 9
South Africa Economic SWOT 9
South Africa Business Environment SWOT 10
South Africa Energy Market Overview 11
Regional Market Overview . 14
Oil Supply and Demand .. 14
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 15
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 16
Oil: Downstream 17
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2008-2015 (000b/d) . 17
Gas Supply And Demand 18
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) 18
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2008-2015 (bcm) 19
Liquefied Natural Gas . 20
Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2008-2015 (bcm) . 20
Business Environment Ratings .. 21
Composite Scores .. 21
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 21
Upstream Scores 22
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings 22
South Africa Upstream Rating – Overview 23
South Africa Upstream Rating – Rewards . 23
South Africa Upstream Rating – Risk .. 23
Downstream Scores . 24
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings .. 24
South Africa Downstream Rating – Overview .. 25
South Africa Downstream Rating – Rewards 25
South Africa Downstream Rating – Risks .. 25
Business Environment 26
Legal Framework 26
Infrastructure 27
Labour Force 28
Foreign Investment Policy . 29
Foreign Trade Regime . 30
Tax Regime 31
Security Risk . 32
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Oil And Gas Reserves . 33
Oil Supply And Demand . 34
Gas Supply And Demand .. 34
LNG . 35
Refining And Oil Products Trade .. 35
Revenues And Import Costs . 36
Table: South Africa’s Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 37
Other Energy .. 38
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario .. 43
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook .. 43
Oil And Gas Infrastructure . 44
Oil Refineries .. 44
Table: Refineries In South Africa 44
Service Stations .. 46
Oil Storage Facilities .. 46
Oil Terminals/ Ports 46
Oil Pipelines 46
Synthetic Fuels Plants . 46
Table: Synthetic Fuels Plants In South Africa.. 47
LNG Terminals .. 47
Gas Pipelines .. 47
Macroeconomic Outlook . 49
Table: South Africa – Economic Activity, 2007-2015 .. 51
Competitive Landscape .. 52
Table: Key Players In South African Oil And Gas Sectors 53
Overview/State Role . 54
Licensing And Regulation .. 54
Government Policy 54
Licensing Rounds 55
International Energy Relations 55
Table: Key Upstream Players .. 56
Table: Key Downstream Players 56
Company Monitor 57
PetroSA 57
Sasol . 60
Engen – Summary .. 63
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary . 63
Total – Summary . 64
BP – Summary . 64
Caltex – Summary .. 65
Chesapeake/Statoil – Summary 65
Rompco – Summary .. 65
Others – Summary . 66
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts .. 67
Regional Oil Demand . 67
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 67
Regional Oil Supply .. 68
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 68
Regional Refining Capacity .. 69
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2013-2020 (000b/d) . 69
Regional Gas Demand . 70
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2013-2020 (bcm) 70
Regional Gas Supply . 71
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2013-2020 (bcm) 71
South Africa Country Overview . 71
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts .. 72
Glossary Of Terms . 73
Business Environment Ratings Methodology 74
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 74
Ratings Overview .. 74
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 75
Indicators .. 75
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings – Methodology .. 76
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 77
BMI Methodology 79
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 79
Energy Industry . 80
Cross Checks .. 80
Sources .. 81
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