South Africa Retail Report Q1 2012

BMI’s Q112 South Africa Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by 50.7% from an estimated ZAR622.91bn (US$75.53bn) in 2011 to ZAR938.59bn (US$113.81bn) in 2015. Key factors behind this expansion will be underlying economic growth, rising disposable income, falling unemployment, increasing urbanisation and the emergence of a black middle class.
South Africa’s nominal GDP is estimated to be US$416.0bn for 2011, with 2010’s real growth rate of 2.8% forecast increasing to 3.2% as the economy continues to recover. With the population increasing from an expected 50.5mn in 2011 to an estimated 51.4mn in 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise to US$12,056 by the end of this forecast period.
Consumer spending is being lifted by foreign visitors to South Africa. Following a difficult 2009, foreign visitor numbers are again on the increase. Boosted by the football World Cup, the country recorded a 15.1% increase in tourist arrivals in 2010 to more than 8mn. Data for January-May 2011 show a favourable 7.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in tourist arrivals. Tourist expenditure was expected to increase from US$11.63mn in 2010 to US$12.90mn in 2011, then to US$14.09mn in 2012.
In 2005, 64.1% of the South African population was described by the UN as economically active, with 36.8% in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales. By 2015, 64.3% of the population is expected to be economically active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age range is forecast to reach 38%. Growing urbanisation is also contributing to the vibrant retail sector, with a 26% increase in the number of urban households between 1994 and 2005. In 2005, less than 58% of the population was classified by the UN as urban but this is forecast to increase to more than 64% by 2015.
According to BMI data, sales of consumer electronics are expected to increase from US$8.22bn in 2011 to US$12.10bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of more than 47%. South Africa’s tech-literate, high-end consumer electronics market is the largest in Africa, and youthful demographics, rising incomes and a regional economic boom should all support expansion.
Sales of over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products are forecast to grow by nearly 64%, from US$0.39bn in 2011 to US$0.63bn by 2015.
Vehicle sales are forecast to rise by nearly 88% from an expected 509,834 units in 2011 to 956,399 units in 2015. The size of the country, significant rural land coverage and the agricultural sector provide a substantial market for four-wheel drive vehicles, light pick-ups and SUVs.
We estimate that overall food consumption in South Africa in 2011 will account for 67.7% of total retail sales worth an estimated US$51.14bn. This is forecast to increase to 72.3% of overall retail sales by 2015. The South African mass grocery retail (MGR) sector, comfortably Africa’s largest in terms of value, is estimated to have been worth US$30.1bn in 2011. BMI expects its value to rise to US$51.2bn by 2015. Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2012 are predicted to amount to US$287.73bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, is forecast at US$788.24bn. In 2012, BMI predicts that South Africa and Saudi Arabia will together account for an estimated 58.0% of regional retail sales, with Israel accounting for a further 15.1%. By 2015, the combined share of South Africa and Saudi Arabia is expected to reach 58.5%.
We put growth in regional retail sales for the period from 2012 to 2015 at 34.6%, or an average 10.4% per annum.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
South Africa Retail Business Environment SWOT 7
South Africa Political SWOT 8
South Africa Economic SWOT 8
Market Overview 9
Current Trends 10
Key Players 13
Industry Forecast Scenario 15
Consumer Outlook 15
Retail Growth Outlook 15
Table: South Africa Retail Sales Indicators,2008-2015 16
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2011e 18
Macroeconomic Outlook 19
Table: South Africa Economic Activity, 2011-2016 21
Regional Retail Outlook 22
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2008-2015 22
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Sales By % Share, 2008-2015 23
Current Trends 23
Business Environment Outlook 32
Middle East And Africa Business Environment Ratings 32
South Africa Retail Rating 34
Limits To Potential Returns 34
Risks To Realisation of Returns 34
Mass Grocery Retail 35
South Africa Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 35
Market Overview 36
Table: Structure Of MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2005-2010 (US$bn) 37
Table: Structure Of MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2005-2010 (ZARbn) 37
Industry Forecast Scenario 37
Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2007-2015 38
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type, 2009 And 2019 38
Industry Developments 39
Consumer Electronics 46
South Africa Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 46
Market Overview 47
Computers 53
Table: Computer Sales, 2008-2015 53
Audio/Video 56
Table: AV Sales, 2008-2005 56
Mobile Communications 60
Table: Mobile Communications Demand, 2008-2015 60
Industry Forecast Scenario 64
Table: Consumer Electronics Sales Overview, 2008-2015 64
Industry Developments 67
Automotives 71
South Africa Autos Industry SWOT 71
Market Overview 72
Table: Top 10 Passenger Car Brands, August 2011 73
Industry Forecast Scenario 77
Table: Auto Production And Sales, 2008-2015 77
Sales 78
Table: Investments Made In H111 83
Industry Developments 84
BMI Methodology 85
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 85
Sources 86
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