Tourism Overview After a strong showing for foreign tourist arrivals in 2010 – partly due to South Africa hosting the FIFA World Cup – the most recent data for January 2011 record a 9% increase in tourist arrivals, compared with the same month a year earlier. Aside from Europe, every other region showed relatively strong growth, with arrivals from Africa up about 11% year-on-year (y-o-y) and visitors from Asia increasing robustly, by more than 29% y-o-y. Tourist arrivals from Europe were up just 1% y-o-y. At the country level, visitors from India and China increased a buoyant 62% and 22% y-o-y respectively. Arrivals from Brazil also rose by a solid 35%, after a near 67% annual increase in 2010 (boosted by the World Cup).
Hospitality
The hospitality sector continues to remain in a rather subdued state. Latest preliminary figures for Q111 show that the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights in all accommodation establishments decreased by a disappointing 4.5% compared with Q110. This follows a 5.9% y-o-y fall in tourist room nights sold in Q410 and a 2.7% y-o-y decline in overnight stays in 2010 as a whole (despite the World Cup).
Forecast Scenario
Our growth forecasts for foreign tourist arrivals over the next few years are unchanged this quarter, with growth slowing markedly in 2011 (after the boost to growth from the 2010 World Cup), although remaining favourable, and edging up in 2012. The outlook is underpinned by solid economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, of around 5% and 6% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, and moderate growth in the eurozone over the same period. We also believe that the South African rand will continue on an appreciation trend against the US dollar and the euro over the coming years – constraining international tourism – with year average forecasts of ZAR8.8300/EUR and ZAR6.4000/US$ for 2012.
O.R. Tambo International Airport
In FY10/11 (ending March), international passenger numbers at Johannesburg’s O.R. Tambo International Airport (ORTIA) were up an annual 6.3% to almost 8mn passengers, with buoyant growth in traffic of 23% and 40% y-o-y in June and July respectively (during the World Cup). International passenger traffic in FY09/10 was largely unchanged, compared with the previous year.
South African Airways
In February and March, South African Airways (SAA) received the first two of six new Airbus A330- 200 aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2011. The aircraft, which are equipped with the latest-generation Rolls-Royce Trent 772B engines, are operating on routes from Johannesburg to London and Mumbai.
Sun International
Financial results for the nine months ending March 31 2011 for South Africa’s Sun International record a 10% y-o-y rise in revenue to nearly ZAR6.7bn. Gaming revenue was up by 9% y-o-y, to about ZAR5.2bn, largely due to increased revenue from operations in Chile. Revenue from rooms, meanwhile, increased by 11% y-o-y to some ZAR700mn. Overall group occupancy for Q111 was 65%, which was down one percentage point compared with the same quarter in 2010. Sun International’s short-term outlook is for hospitality revenues to remain subdued. Gaming revenues though are showing signs of improvement at most locations.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
South Africa Tourism SWOT 7
South Africa Political SWOT .. 8
South Africa Economic SWOT 8
South Africa Business Environment SWOT .. 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Arrivals .. 10
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 10
Accommodation . 12
Table: Hotels Data, 2007-2015 12
Expenditure .. 13
Table: Expenditure Data, 2007-2015 13
Inbound Tourism 14
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Region, 2007-2015 14
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Country, 2007-2015 . 15
Outbound Tourism 16
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 . 16
The ‘World Cup Effect’ .. 17
Table: Key Tourism Source Markets That Participated In The 2010 World Cup . 18
Market Overview – Travel 20
Airports .. 20
Commercial Airlines 21
Special Focus: Jet Fuel Costs .. 23
Global Oil Products Price Outlook .. 24
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 25
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) .. 28
Market Overview – Hospitality . 30
Accommodation Developments .. 30
Casinos .. 33
Table: Key Players In South Africa’s Hotel And Gaming Industry . 33
Game Lodges .. 34
Regional Case Study: Accor . 35
Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, June 2011 . 36
Business Environment Outlook .. 37
Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 37
BMI’s Security Ratings .. 38
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings . 38
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 39
South Africa’s Security Ratings .. 39
City Terrorism Ratings .. 40
Table: BMI’s Africa City Terrorism Index . 41
Middle East And Africa Security Overview .. 43
Special Report: Crime .. 45
Global Assumptions, Q311 47
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .. 47
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 48
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) .. 48
Developed States 49
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 49
Emerging Markets. 50
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .. 51
Consensus Forecasts 52
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) .. 52
Company Profiles 53
South African Airways . 53
Southern Sun . 55
Sun International 56
BMI Methodology 58
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 58
Tourism Industry . 58
Tourism Ratings – Methodology . 59
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators . 60
Table: Weighting Of Components .. 61
City Terrorism Ratings .. 61
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology .. 63
Sources .. 63
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]