South Korea Telecommunications Report Q1 2012

BMI’s Q112 report on South Korea’s telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developments to occur within the country’s mobile, fixed-line telephony, and internet sectors. This quarter we have extended our five-year growth forecasts through to the end of 2016. Our forecasts are based on Q311 data published by South Korea’s leading operators – SK Telecom, SK Broadband, KT, and LG Uplus.
By the end of September 2011, South Korea had 52.121mn mobile subscribers, reflecting a net gain of 1.353mn customers in the first nine months of the year. We maintain our forecast that, by the end of 2011, the mobile subscriber base will increase to 56.2mn. This gives South Korea a mobile penetration rate of 108.7%. Although the South Korean mobile market is already mature, continued mobile customer growth has been the result of stronger smartphone handset penetration rates and the provision of flat-rate data services offering cheaper tariffs. Growth in the number of smartphone customers has a direct effect on the country’s 3G subscriber base, which we now estimate reached 47.75mn at the end of 2011. Our new forecast envisages 57.19mn 3G subscribers by the end of 2016, almost 98% of the total mobile subscriber base.
By the end of 2011, we estimate that South Korea had 27.08mn fixed-line subscriptions, reflecting annual growth of 3.2%, a penetration rate of 56.0%. Much of the recent growth that has characterised South Korea’s fixed-line sector is the result of an increasing number of VoIP subscriptions; these are offered over broadband internet connections of a bundled service offering. Between 2012 and 2016, we envisage average annual growth of 1.3%. This will result in a market with 28.83mn fixed-line connections and a penetration rate of 58.5%.
We maintain our view that South Korea had just more than 37.4mn internet users at the end of 2011, up by 1.1% over the year. We also estimate that South Korean had 18.1mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2011, up by 5.1% y-o-y. This was a penetration rate of 37.4%. We expect slower broadband subscriber growth to result in increasing competition in the area of bundled and converged services. Our newly extended forecast envisages 20.37mn broadband subscribers and 38.67mn internet users at the end of 2016, with penetration rates of 41.4% and 78.5%.
Key developments of note in South Korea’s telecoms sector include the news in December 2011 that the country’s second largest cellco KT faced a new stumbling block in its plans to introduce LTE-based 4G services in the form of its existing 2G customer base. KT had planned to use the 1.8GHz 2G service frequency for its LTE service. However, it now appears that around 159,000 2G customers had refused to give up their 2G mobile phones or network services. The operator had planned to halt its 2G service on 8 December 2011 and had even received approval from the regulator to do so. However, the Seoul Administrative Court subsequently blocked these plans. The court’s decision made it unlikely that KT would launch its 4G service before the end of 2011. By contrast, rival operators SK Telecom and LG Uplus both announced the commercial launch of LTE services in June 2011.
South Korea has fallen from 4th to 5th position in BMI’s latest set of Business Environment Ratings for the Asia Pacific Telecoms markets. This is in spite of receiving higher scores in the Country Risks category. We expect South Korea's real GDP growth to slow to a below-consensus 3.1% in 2011 and 2.4% in 2012. This comes on the back of a rapidly deteriorating global economy, which is likely to weigh heavily on South Korea's export-dependent economy. Meanwhile, we believe that the sudden death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's poses new risks for East Asian security. Although his son Kim Jong Un appears to be taking over, the younger Kim has little political experience to run what is one of the world's most troubled countries. We therefore believe there is a high possibility that he will be a mere figurehead, with real power wielded by the military. Over the long term, we could see tentative reforms, although there is still a risk of eventual state collapse.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
South Korea Mobile SWOT 7
South Korea Wireline SWOT 8
South Korea Political SWOT 8
South Korea Economic SWOT 9
South Korea Business Environment SWOT 10
Business Environment Ratings 11
Asia 11
Asia Pacific Business Environment Ratings, Q112 16
South Korea 16
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Mobile 19
Table: South Korea Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 19
ARPU 21
Table: South Korea Telecoms Sector – ARPU – Historical Data & Forecasts 21
Fixed Line 23
Industry Trends – Fixed-Line Sector 23
Internet 24
Table: South Korea Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts 24
Market Data Analysis 26
Mobile 26
Table: South Korean Mobile Market Net Additions, Q311 26
Table: South Korean Mobile Market, Q311 28
ARPU & MOU 29
MVNOs 29
3G 31
4G (LTE) 32
Mobile Contract Wins 34
Mobile Content 35
Regional Outlook 35
Selected NFC Developments, 2011 36
Country Outlook 40
Value-Added Services Timeline 43
Table: Selected VAS Services, 2008-2011 43
Mobile Operator Data 44
Table: South Korea Mobile Market Overview 44
Table: SK Telecom 45
Table: KT 46
Fixed Line 48
Table: South Korean Local Access Market (PSTN + VoIP), September 2011 48
Broadband 50
Table: South Korean Broadband Market, December 2010 50
Table: South Korea Broadband Access Types By Operator, December 2010 51
IPTV 52
WiBro 53
Wireline Developments 55
South Korea Telecommunications Report Q1 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments 55
Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments 56
Table: Division Of Regulatory Responsibility In South Korea 56
Legislation 58
Industry Developments 59
Competitive Landscape 63
Competitor Analysis 63
Table: Key Players – South Korea Telecoms Sector 63
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2002-2010 (US$mn) 64
Company Monitor 65
HTC 65
Table: HTC: Q211 Profit & Loss Indicators (TWDbn) 66
Operator Profiles 71
KT Corporation 71
SK Telecom 76
SK Broadband (Formerly Hanaro Telecom) 82
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 85
Fixed-Line 85
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 85
Broadband 86
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 86
Mobile 87
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 87
Country Snapshot: South Korea Demographic Data 88
Section 1: Population 88
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 88
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 89
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 89
Table: Education, 2002-2005 89
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 89
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 90
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 90
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 90
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 91
Glossary Of Terms 92
Table: Glossary Of Terms 92
BMI Methodology 93
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 93
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 93
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 95
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 95
Table: Ratings Indicators 96
Weighting 97
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 97
Sources 97
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]