Over recent quarters there have been some signs of improvement within the Spanish grocery sector, with food retail sales growth back in positive territory. However, we continue to see limited scope for growth in private consumption. Ultimately, high unemployment, falling real wages, a large stock of private sector debt and fiscal austerity will keep consumers focused on deleveraging rather than spending for the foreseeable future, particularly as taxes on consumption have been pushed up to help bring down Spain's deficit. This means we see very little chance of another consumption-led boom over the next five years and see the environment continuing to favour price-focused retailers and cheaper food and drink options over most of this period.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 per capita food consumption = -0.05%; forecast to 2015 = +11.9%
?? 2011 alcoholic drink sales = +0.3%; forecast to 2015 = 2.1%
?? 2011 soft drink sales = +2.3% ; forecast to 2015 = +16.6%
?? 2011 mass grocery retail sales = +2.3%; forecast to 2015 = +16.5%
Key Company Trends & Developments
Ebro share price affirms strategy; SOS investors not yet convinced by restructuring – Spanish olive oil producer SOS Corporacion Alimentaria has recently registered a profit of EUR8.1mn for the first quarter of its 2011 financial year. This is the firm's first quarterly profit for three years, and has been described by the firm as a 'reversal and normalisation of operational activity'. The firm was hit badly by an accounting scandal that was compounded by the financial economic crisis. With the sale of its rice business to Ebro Puelva now completed, SOS is left in a stronger financial position, but almost completely focused on olive oil. SOS has said it will be changing its name to Deoleo following the divestiture, to reflect this new positioning.
Carrefour to spin off Dia discount business – In May 2011 Carrefour filed a plan with the Spanish regulator to spin off its European discount business Dia subsidiary in a stock market listing in Madrid that could value the unit at EUR4bn. Dia has said it plans to raise its store count to more than 8,000 by 2013, and forecasts that sales in emerging markets will grow to make up 30% of sales by that point, compared with 22% in 2010. The plan to list Dia in Spain highlights the success that Carrefour's discount operation has had in that market, with the firm overhauling its French portfolio to more closely mirror its operations in the Spanish market.
Key Risk to Outlook
Eurozone debt crisis – the risks to our outlook are currently weighted to the downside. An important risk to our forecasts is the prospect of further instability in the eurozone as a result of the unsustainable debt levels built up by some member countries – including Spain. In addition, a more aggressive response from the ECB to rising inflationary pressures across the eurozone could significantly crimp domestic demand. This is particularly the case for Spain given that most household mortgages track the threemonth, six-month or 12-month Euribor rates.

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BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Spain Food Industry SWOT 9
Spain Drink Industry SWOT 10
Spain Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 11
Business Environment Ratings 12
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 12
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views 17
Western Europe Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 18
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q3 2011 21
Spain’s Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings 22
Macroeconomic Outlook 24
Table: Spain – Economic Activity 28
Industry Forecast Scenario 29
Consumer Outlook 29
Food 32
Total Food Consumption 32
Table: Spain Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 32
Canned Food/Prepared Food 33
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 33
Confectionery 33
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 34
Drink 35
Hot Drinks 35
Table: Coffee Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 35
Soft Drinks 35
Table: Soft Drink Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts 36
Alcoholic Drinks 36
Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 37
Mass Grocery Retail 38
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$bn) – Historical Data & Forecasts 39
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts 39
Trade 40
Food 41
Key Industry Trends & Developments 41
Ebro Poised For Growth/SOS Posts First Profit In Three Years 41
Smithfield Looks To Raise Stake In Campofrio 42
Mixed Signs For Investment In Sector 44
Private-Labels Gaining Market Share 44
Market Overview 45
Prepared Food 45
Organic 46
Meat And Fish 47
Eggs And Dairy 47
Drink 48
Key Industry Trends & Developments 48
Spirits Hit By New Taxes 48
Wine Exports Exposed To Currency Fluctuations 48
Mahou-San Miguel Extends Beverage Portfolio 49
Energy Drinks Launching 50
Market Overview 50
Soft Drinks 50
Alcoholic Drinks 51
Mass Grocery Retail 53
Key Industry Trends & Developments 53
Bearish Spanish Outlook Means Eroski May Need To Sell More Assets 53
Carrefour Spin-Off Plans For Dia 53
Mercadona Expected To Remain As Outperformer 54
Retailers Adapting Their Offering 55
Retailers Continue To Invest 56
Market Overview 57
Table: Structure Of Spain’s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets 59
Table: Structure Of Spain’s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$mn) 59
Table: Structure Of Spain’s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (EURmn) 59
Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format – 2009 60
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts 60
Competitive Landscape 61
Table: Key Players in Spain's Food Sector 61
Table: Key Players In Spain's Drink Sector 62
Table: Key Players In Spain's Mass Grocery Retail Sector 63
Company Monitor 65
Food 65
Grupo Ebro Puleva 65
Grupo Leche Pascual Alimentación 67
Campofrio Alimentación SA 68
SOS Corporación Alimentaria 70
Drink 72
Heineken España SA 72
Mass Grocery Retail 73
Auchan 73
Centros Comerciales Carrefour 74
Eroski Group (Including Caprabo) 75
Mercadona 77
BMI Methodology 79
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 79
Table: Returns 80
Table: Risks 81
Weighting 82
Table: Weightings 82
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 83
Food & Drink 83
Mass Grocery Retail 83
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 85
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 85
Sourcing 86
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