Sudan Defence and Security Report Q1 2012

There has been slow progress in relations between the governments of Juba and Khartoum since our last update with unstable relations between the two states exacerbated by internal conflicts driven by rebel groups.
For Sudan, the emergence of a new rebel alliance – led by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) – which the explicit aim of overthrowing al-Bashir’s government in Khartoum will ensure that Darfur remains a tinderbox over the coming year. With regional instability still widespread, there are increasing fears among the international audience that Sudan is increasingly vulnerable to revolution. The July 2011 peace treaty signed in Doha, although being enacted through the establishment of the Darfur Regional Authority (DRA), has been undermined by the new alliance, and the death of JEM leader Ibrahim Khalil in December may yet mark an increase in violence.
Against the Sudanese macro-economic backdrop having lost many of the oil fields essential to the country’s economy in the secession of South Sudan, the risks to BMI’s outlook are heavily weighted to the downside.
Secession, although an overall success, has not been smooth with many disputes – such as over the region of Abyei – becoming increasingly worrying to the international community. In light of the events that changed the Middle East and North Africa’s political landscape in 2011, it is unsurprising for the governments of both countries to be particularly aware of the threat posed by revolution. Both states are mutually suspicious of aid offered to enemy rebels, with the death of the JEM leader alleged to have occurred while trying to lead forces across the border into South Sudan and to a newly established training base.
South Sudan’s primary security risk, in addition to the ongoing Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) disputes with Khartoum, is in the region of Jonglei which saw increasing ethnic violence between rival tribes in the final weeks of 2011, sparking UN intervention.
With the composite risks to immediate security and stability, Sudan is likely to become a key international topic in 2012. A number of areas of Sudan’s security industry must still be addressed if a legitimate society is to emerge in South Sudan. In such a fragile region, borders must be clearly delineated, but the import of weapons and equipment to the region should also be strictly monitored. In the long term, regional tensions must be eased in order to create a stable society, and as such, the long term social impact of exporting arms known to be for use in Darfur should be made known. Only with security will Sudan, and the newly-created Republic of South Sudan, be able to make social and economic progress.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Sudan Political SWOT 6
Sudan Economic SWOT 7
Sudan Business Environment SWOT 7
Global Political Outlook 8
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea 8
Table: Election Timetable, 2012 14
United States 16
Latin America 17
Western Europe 19
Central, Eastern And South Eastern Europe 20
Russia And The Former Soviet Union 21
Middle East And North Africa 23
Sub-Saharan Africa 25
Asia 27
Wild Cards To Watch 32
Security Risk Analysis 35
Defence And Security Ratings 35
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings 35
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 36
Political Overview 37
Domestic Politics 37
Foreign Policy 39
Security Overview 42
Internal Security Overview 42
Conflict In Darfur 42
Justice And Equality Movement 48
North-South Civil War 50
Security Threat In South Sudan 55
External Security Situation 56
Sudan And Uganda 56
Relationship With Washington 57
Sudan And Ethiopia 58
Sudan And Chad: From Enemies To Friends 58
South Sudan And The East Africa Community 59
Sudan And Israel 59
Armed Forces 61
Arms Trade Overview 62
Industry Forecast Scenario 64
Armed Forces 64
Table: Armed Forces, 2001-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 64
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 64
Defence Expenditure 65
Defence Expenditure 65
Table: Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 65
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 66
Arms Trade 66
Table: Sudan’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 67
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 68
Macroeconomic Forecast 68
Table: Sudan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 69
BMI Methodology 71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 71
Defence Industry 71
Sources 72
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]