Core Views
Sweden will remain a European outperformer, with growth forecast to come in at 4.4% in 2011. S weden is among the best positioned developed economies in the world , with a highly productive export sector, fiscal surplus, and stable banking system.
While hampered by its minority status in the Riksdag, we expect the centre-right coalition government to steadily push forward on its economic liberalisation agenda.
Major Forecast Changes
We have upgraded our 2011 growth forecast for Sweden to 4.4%. O n the back of an increasingly stable domestic and regional macroeconomic environment, we have revised up our end-2011 Riksbank Repo Rate forecast to 2.75%.
Key Risks To Outlook
Downside Growth Risks From Global Crises: Supply shock risks to the price of oil stemming from Middle East political crises and negative demand implications from the natural disasters affecting Japan in March pose downside risks to our Swedish growth forecasts. Upside Long-Term Growth Risks From Structural Reforms: Structural reforms will be a major agenda items for EU governments in 2011. Should decision-makers take substantive steps forward toward liberalisation, this could push long-term growth potential higher.
[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics 8
Government Well Positioned As Economy Booms
With the economy booming and the central government fiscal accounts in the black, Sweden’s centre-right coalition
government is well positioned, despite its minority status in the Riksdag
TABLE: Political Ov erview 8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 11
SWOT Analysis 11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 11
Economic Activity 12
Growth: Another Red-Hot Year Ahead
We have upgraded our 2011 real GDP growth forecast for Sweden to 44%
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 12
Monetary Policy 14
Rates To Rise A Further 125bps
Sweden’s Riksbank is expected to continue its monetary tightening through the remainder of 2011, bringing the repo
rate to 275% by end year
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY 14
Balance of Payments 15
Balance Of Payments Confirms Recovery View
Swedish balance of payments data reinforce our view for both a regional and domestic macroeconomic recovery
TABLE: BALANCE OF PA YMENTS (Euro) 16
Currency Forecast 17
SE K: Heading Back To Historic Highs
Despite having already appreciated by more than 23% against the euro since mid-2009, we believe that the Swedish
kroner has further to gain through 2011
Banking Sector 18
Banking Sector Outlook: Household Slowdown But Corporate Pickup
Despite continued rate hikes and slowing mortgage market, we believe that the outlook for the Swedish banking sector is relatively
sound
TABLE: Key Bank Ratios 19
Chapter 3: Business Environment 21
SWOT Analysis 21
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 21
Chapter 4: Key Sectors 23
Pharmaceuticals 23
TABLE: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 24
TABLE: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015 24
TABLE: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2007-2015 25
TABLE: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 25
TABLE: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015 25
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions 27
Global Outlook 27
Oil Risks
TABLE: Global Assumptions 27
TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH % CHG Y-O-Y 28
TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS 28
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]