BMI’s commercial banking forecast series covers 59 countries accounting for 80% of global GDP. Each report, researched at source, features BMI’s independent assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2014 for the commercial banking sector in each market. Using its expertise in both country risk and financial markets analysis, BMI has created exclusive models to forecast a wealth of key variables on the commercial banking sector. Historic and forecast data are provided for the sector’s total asset and liability growth, client loans, and client deposits. Forecasts for key ratios including the loan-deposit ratio and the loan-asset ratio are also included, as well as core macro-economic forecasts. Data is presented in both local currency and US dollar terms.
Each report examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government policy and the regulatory environment.
Central to BMI’s analysis are our unique Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings. BMI’s unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rating provides a clear, quantified, independent assessment of the opportunities and dangers of operating in each market. The methodology draws together our in-depth knowledge of competitive pressures, our comprehensive industry market forecasts, and our Country Risk team’s unrivalled analysis of economic, political and operational risks.
The reports also feature profiles of leading banks, covering total assets, liabilities, client deposits, lending, bond holdings, main products and services, competitive positioning and ownership structure.

Report Highlights

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Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (CHFbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At December 2009 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2010-2014 (%) 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2010 6
Table: Projected Levels (CHFbn) 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Switzerland Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Switzerland Political SWOT 7
Switzerland Economic SWOT 8
Business Environment Outlook 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 9
Table: Switzerland Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 10
Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 11
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 12
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP Ratios 15
Table: Anticipated Developments In 2010 15
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) 16
Table: Comparison Of US$ Per Capita Deposits (Late 2009) 16
Table: Interbank Rates & Bond Yields 17
Switzerland Banking Sector Outlook 18
Economic Outlook 22
Table: Switzerland Economic Activity, 2007-2014 23
Company Profiles 24
UBS 24
Table: Stock Market Indicators 25
Table: Balance Sheet (CHFmn, unless stated) 25
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 26
Table: Key Ratios (%) 26
Credit Suisse 27
Table: Stock Market Indicators 28
Table: Balance Sheet (CHFmn, unless stated) 28
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 29
Table: Key Ratios (%) 29
Aargauische Kantonalbank 30
Berner Kantonalbank 32
Table: Stock Market Indicators 33
Table: Balance Sheet (CHFmn, unless stated) 33
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 33
Table: Key Ratios (%) 34
Luzerner Kantonalbank 35
Table:Stock Market Indicators 36
Table:Balance Sheet (CHFmn, unless stated) 36
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 37
Table: Key Ratios (%) 37
St Galler Kantonalbank 38
Table:Stock Market Indicators 39
Table:Balance Sheet (CHFmn, unless stated) 39
Table:Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 40
Table: Key Ratios (%) 40
Zürcher Kantonalbank 41
Banque Cantonale Vaudoise 43
Table: Stock Market Indicators 44
Table: Balance Sheet (CHFmn, unless stated) 44
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 44
Table: Key Ratios (%) 45
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 46
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 47
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 48
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 49

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