The Q312 update to BMI’s Swiss telecoms market report contains analyses of major developments in the telecoms market. It also contains updates to our five-year forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors. We draw on market data published by the regulator, as well as quarterly data from major service providers Swisscom, Sunrise, Orange Switzerland and UPC Switzerland (Cablecom) covering the period to the end of December 2011.
There have been a number of significant developments in the Swiss telecoms market since our last update, the most notable ones being the arrival of a new investor in the market and the allocation of new spectrum to operators. In our previous report, we highlighted the likelihood of a shake-up in the telecoms market following plans by French incumbent France Télécom-Orange to sell its entire stake in its Swiss subsidiary Orange Switzerland to UK-based private equity firm Apax Partners. The acquisition was approved by the Swiss Competition Commission (ComCom) in early February 2012, while France Télécom and Apax Partners completed the deal on February 29 2012. BMI expects the owners of Orange, which has largely underperformed against its rivals in the telecoms market, to inject much-needed capital into the operator to improve its competitiveness. Apax Partners has not revealed plans to rebrand the operator and will continue to pay France Télécom a fee for as long as they use the Orange brand.
Also in February, the three leading mobile network operators all acquired additional spectrum at the auction carried out by ComCom. The spectrum is technology neutral, so can be used for a range of services including GSM, UMTS and LTE. While operators are eager to launch higher value data services, which BMI expects to grow rapidly in the lucrative Swiss market, some plans will be held back by the availability of spectrum. Some of the 900/1800/2,100MHz spectrum is immediately available for use. Meanwhile, the 800MHz blocks are available during 2013, but a large part of the remaining spectrum will not be available until 2015-2017. However, with the 2.6GHz spectrum available immediately, and 800MHz spectrum freed in 2013, BMI does not expect lengthy delays to the roll-out of LTE services.
The Swiss mobile and broadband sectors exceeded growth expectations in 2011 while the fixed-line sector continued to underperform. According to operator data for YE11, we calculate there were 9.779mn mobile subscribers at the end of 2011, a number we forecast to rise to more than 11.1mn by 2016.
Switzerland’s broadband subscriber base crossed the 3mn mark in 2011 as the regulator reported 3.011mn broadband subscribers in the country at the end of December 2011, equivalent to a penetration rate of 39.1%. With significant investments in fixed and mobile access technologies and rising demand for data services, we forecast broadband penetration rate to reach 44.5% by 2016. For its part, the fixed-line sector continues to trend downwards with an estimated loss of almost 100,000 subscribers in 2011 to bring the subscriber base to 4.394mn at the end of the year. We expect this continue during our forecast period, through to 2016, with the penetration rate dropping from 57.1% in 2011 to 50.3% by 2016.

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