Syria is in a delicate position in the Middle East, involved in countless disputes and largely unsupported by its neighbours. The authoritarian Assad rule has been threatened by recent protests similar to those spreading across the Middle East. Inspired by the toppling of two Arab leaders and the massive show of force with the military intervention in Libya, protesters seek to topple the iron fisted military rule of the Assad regime and replace it, with a democratic government.
Unfortunately, given Syria’s political and geographic position along with strained western resources, it is unlikely that the West could intervene militarily. However Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran all have vested interests and are likely to try to take advantage of any power vacuum to come about as a result of the demonstrations, possibly through covert or religious means.
The threat of intervention from any number of regional powers could destabilise the Middle East and any resulting conflict is likely to warrant western intervention. A weakened Assad-ruled Syria is more vulnerable to Israeli strikes or espionage, a Shiite revolution is likely to maintain Syria’s close relationship with Iran and a more moderate Sunni-led Syrian government is likely to be highly unpopular. Assad’s relatively strong grip on the nation is unlikely to be too shaken without more widespread demonstrations. The US and the UN are well aware of the situation, with Obama imposing sanctions on three senior members of the Assad government. Senator John McCain has called for arrest warrants for all senior members of the regime and the UN is likely to impose strict economic penalties if the dispute deteriorates further.
Syria’s military equipment is long outdated, having been sourced mostly from the Soviet Union. It is possible that military and economic ties to Iran may come into play to support the Assad regime’s survival.
Syria’s economy appears to be increasingly isolated, the only trading partners being Iran and North Korea. The nation suffers from water shortages and the economy is struggling to keep up with the growing population, with an estimated 25% unemployment. Syria’s emphasis on infrastructure development is desirable but the business environment may make it impossible for the government to support. The continuing drought further shrinks the economy and none of this is helped by closed borders, widespread strikes and a general state of unrest. Syria’s economy is very much frozen, at least until the political environment stabilises and some of the sanctions are lifted.

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Syria Security SWOT .. 6
Syria Defence Industry SWOT 6
Syria Political SWOT .. 7
Syria Economic SWOT 7
Syria Business Environment SWOT . 8
Global Political Outlook . 9
Japan After The Quake 10
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 11
Wild Cards To Watch 15
Middle East Security Overview 17
Political Risk Analysis – The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 17
The Middle East In A Global Context .. 17
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security. 17
Regional Power Dynamics . 27
Nuclear Proliferation 29
External Powers.. 30
Scenarios For The Middle East 31
Security Risk Analysis . 33
BMI’s Security Ratings 33
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings . 33
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 34
City Terrorism Rating .. 34
Table: BMI’s Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index 35
Political Overview 37
Domestic Security Overview . 41
Internal Security Situation . 41
Latest Developments . 42
External Security Situation 44
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 47
Armed Forces .. 47
International Deployments . 48
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 48
Latest Developments . 49
Market Overview .. 50
Imports . 50
Exports . 51
Procurement Trends And Developments . 51
Industry Forecast Scenario 53
Armed Forces .. 53
Table: Syria’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 53
Table: Syria’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 53
Defence Expenditure . 54
Table: Syrian Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 54
Table: Syria’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 54
Defence Trade .. 56
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 56
Macroeconomic Outlook . 56
Table: Syria – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 .. 57
Country Snapshot: Syria Demographic Data . 58
Section 1: Population 58
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 58
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 59
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 59
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .. 59
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 59
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 60
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2003 60
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) .. 60
Methodology .. 61
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 61
Defence Industry . 61
City Terrorism Rating .. 62
Table: Methodology .. 64
Sources 65
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