Taiwan Defence and Security Report Q3 2011

Taiwan enjoys strong economic ties with China and a close political relationship with the United States. Officially a ‘province’, it leads an economically strong but uncomfortable existence with the constant presence of international tension. To disrupt ties with China would cause economic loss, however, dependence on the United States for military equipment and their peacekeeping presence maintains a tentative regional stability constantly on the verge of disruption Little change in this condition is likely in the mid-term future. China’s discouragement of a declaration of independence by Taiwan is a disincentive to other countries were they to consider supporting the province. However, few Taiwanese are in favour of reunitification with China. As a result, Taiwan behaves as though it were its own nation, trades and negotiates as though it were, but cannot be party to international agreements or treaties since it is not a legal nation state.
The Taiwanese economy expanded strongly in Q111, with growth coming in at a solid 6.2% y-o-y and a seasonally-adjusted 3.2% q-o-q, according to the government's advanced estimates. This growth has been offset recently due to the natural disaster in Japan and the reduction in imports anticipated within China’s economy. Nonetheless, Taiwan holds a strong economic position and has strong internal stability.
It is Taiwan’s stated objective to become more self-sufficient, particularly in military matters. With a desire to maintain defence capabilities to deter China, the province has for years worked on developing its defence capabilities. Investment in development and education of both military and specialist personnel has enabled Taiwan to make progress in the development of aircraft, defence systems and advanced radar equipment. However, continued negotiations with the United States for military equipment have been deemed necessary to maintain pace against the rapidly strengthening China forces.
Access to the Foreign Military Sales programme also provides Taiwan the ability to acquire equipment and research advantages not available to sanction-limited China. In 2010, a large equipment purchase of F-16 fighters and diesel-electric submarines from the United States created a rift between the United States and China. Consequently, the United States has taken a cautious approach to the fulfillment of the contract and to date there is some doubt over the likelihood of actual delivery of the equipment.
Meanwhile, Taiwan is endeavouring to curb the size of its military and focus its energies in diversification of technology.
Taiwan enjoys political stability with two main parties, one leaning towards greater independence and the other taking a more prudent approach to relations with nearby powers. It is a densely populated area with a vested interest in maintaining internal solidarity since China has declared internal conflict a sufficient reason to take over. Situated inside heavily trafficked trade routes, Taiwan is able to benefit from diverse commercial activity. However, the suspected existence of gas seams and oil deposits within its boundaries ensure a jealous eye is kept on the island by all neighbouring nations who might stake a claim.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Taiwan Security SWOT .. 6
Taiwan Defence Industry SWOT 7
Taiwan Political SWOT . 8
Taiwan Economic SWOT .. 9
Taiwan Business Environment SWOT .. 10
Global Political Outlook .. 11
Japan After The Quake 12
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 13
Wild Cards To Watch 17
North East Asia Security Overview .. 19
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia .. 19
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia 20
The Evolution Of North East Asia .. 27
Security Risk Analysis . 30
BMI’s Security Ratings 30
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 30
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 31
Taiwan’s Security Risk . 31
City Terrorism Rating .. 32
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index . 33
Political Overview 34
Domestic Politics 34
Long-Term Political Outlook 36
Security Overview .. 40
Internal Security Situation . 40
External Security Situation 40
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 42
Armed Forces .. 42
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 45
Market Structure .. 48
Recent Changes .. 49
Arms Trade Overview .. 49
Industry Trends And Developments .. 49
Procurement Trends And Developments . 50
Competitive Landscape 52
Industry Forecast Scenario 53
Armed Forces .. 53
Table: Taiwan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 53
Defence Expenditure . 53
Table: Taiwan’s Defence Expenditure; 2008-2015 53
Table: Taiwan’s Defence Expenditure And % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) .. 54
Defence Trade .. 55
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 55
Macroeconomic Forecast .. 55
Table: Taiwan – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 . 57
Company Profiles 58
Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC) 58
CSBC Corporation, Taiwan .. 59
Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology 60
Combined Service Forces .. 61
Country Snapshot: Taiwan Demographic Data . 62
Section 1: Population 62
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2000-2030 . 62
Section 2: Labour Market And Spending Power . 63
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005 63
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2005 (US$) .. 63
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012 .. 63
BMI Methodology 64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 64
Defence Industry . 64
City Terrorism Rating .. 65
Table: Methodology .. 67
Sources 68
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]