Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011

The latest Taiwan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.66% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. Taiwan’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 was 2.42%, while its share of production is minimal. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.26%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, giving Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.
The 2010 rise in Taiwanese real GDP was 10.5%, with average annual growth of 5.8% forecast in 2010- 2015. State-owned CPC has been given the task of securing oil and gas supply, but has no significant domestic volumes to contribute. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 2% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 1.2mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas usage is expected to rise from the estimated 2010 figure of 12.4bcm to 14.8bcm by 2015, supplied by liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Taiwan’s oil consumption from an estimated 981,000b/d to 1.2mn b/d, with the country’s refining capacity falling from an estimated 1.24mn b/d to 1.02mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from an estimated 12.4bcm in 2010 to a possible 16.3bcm by 2020, met by LNG imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and countryspecific projections, can be found at the end of this report.
Taiwan takes 15th and last place in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table, lagging well behind Hong Kong and South Korea. Taiwan also ranks 15th and last in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the total control of the government over upstream oil activities and a healthy country risk profile, the latter offsetting partly the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country is last in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, some distance behind nearest rivals Malaysia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). The poor showing reflects its high level of state involvement, relatively high retail site intensity, and modest oil and gas demand growth outlook.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Taiwan Political SWOT 9
Taiwan Economic SWOT 10
Taiwan Business Environment SWOT . 11
Taiwan Energy Market Overview 12
Regional Energy Market Overview . 14
Oil Supply And Demand . 14
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 15
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 16
Oil: Downstream 17
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 17
Gas Supply And Demand . 18
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 18
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) . 19
Liquefied Natural Gas 20
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 20
Business Environment Ratings 21
Asia Pacific Region 21
Composite Scores 22
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating . 22
Upstream Scores . 23
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating. 23
Taiwan Upstream Rating – Overview . 24
Taiwan Upstream Rating – Rewards 24
Taiwan Upstream Rating – Risks 24
Downstream Scores 25
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating . 25
Taiwan Downstream Rating – Overview . 26
Taiwan Downstream Rating – Rewards 26
Taiwan Downstream Rating – Risks . 26
Business Environment . 27
Legal Framework . 27
Infrastructure . 28
Labour Force . 29
Foreign Investment Policy . 30
Tax Regime 32
Security Risk 33
Industry Forecast Scenario . 34
Oil And Gas Reserves 34
Oil Supply And Demand . 34
Gas Supply And Demand . 34
LNG . 34
Refining And Oil Products Trade . 35
Revenues/Import Costs. 36
Table: Taiwan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts . 37
Other Energy . 38
Table: Taiwan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts . 40
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario. 41
Long-Term Energy Outlook . 41
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 42
Oil Refineries . 42
Table: Refineries In Taiwan 42
Service Stations 43
Oil Storage . 43
LNG Terminals 44
Gas Pipelines . 44
Macroeconomic Outlook . 45
Table: Taiwan - Economic Activity . 47
Competitive Landscape 48
Executive Summary 48
Table: Key Players Taiwan Oil And Gas Sector . 49
Overview/State Role . 50
Government Policy . 50
Table: Key Upstream Player . 50
Table: Key Downstream Players 51
Company Monitor 52
CPC Corporation . 52
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) . 56
NPC – Summary . 59
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary 59
ExxonMobil – Summary 59
Others – Summary 59
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts . 60
Regional Oil Demand 60
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 60
Regional Oil Supply . 61
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 61
Regional Refining Capacity . 62
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 62
Regional Gas Demand . 63
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 63
Regional Gas Supply 64
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) . 64
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 65
Glossary Of Terms 66
Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings 67
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 67
Ratings Overview . 67
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 68
Indicators . 69
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 69
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology . 70
BMI Methodology 72
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 72
Energy Industry . 72
Cross Checks . 73
Sources 73
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