ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2
About the PharmaVitae team 2
Chapter 1 About this profile 3
PharmaVitae Explorer database 3
Chapter structure 3
Executive summary 3
Quarterly news update 3
Company introduction 3
Company sales 4
Company financials 4
Key products and competitors 4
Data sourcing 4
Sales data 4
Analyst consensus 4
Chapter 2 Executive summary 5
Key findings 5
Financial performance, 2002-14 7
Takeda: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Strategic insight 9
Prospect of blockbuster genericization prompts wave of pipeline investment 9
Over 80% of current ethical sales will soon be exposed to generic competition 9
Additional challenge set to arise from reforms to Japan healthcare system 10
Capitalization helps to steer long-term strategy and innovation 10
Follow-on therapies vital in limiting impact of generic penetration 11
Takeda looks to Kapidex in order to maintain GERD presence 12
Alogliptin launch delayed after FDA requests additional safety trial data 13
SWOT analysis 15
Strengths 15
Weaknesses 17
Opportunities 18
Threats 18
Table of Contents 20
Table of figures 22
Chapter 3 Quarterly news update 23
Latest prescription pharma product news 23
Q1 2010 23
Latest corporate news 25
Q1 2010 25
Future product milestones 26
Chapter 4 Company introduction 27
Key findings 27
Background 28
Key corporate developments 28
Out-licensing and TAP joint venture provide initial framework for US penetration 28
Japanese healthcare reforms heighten competition in domestic market 29
Consumer health 29
Joint ventures 30
M&A history 30
Acquisition of Millennium Pharmaceuticals 30
Acquisition of Paradigm Therapeutics 31
Acquisition of Syrrx 31
M&A strategy 32
Chapter 5 Company sales 33
Key findings 33
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2002-14 34
Product analysis 35
Product analysis, 2002-08 36
Product analysis, 2008-14 39
Growth drivers 41
Growth resistors 42
Therapy area analysis 44
Geographic analysis 46
Launch/core/expiry analysis 48
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 48
Launch analysis, 2008-14 49
Core analysis, 2008-14 50
Expiry analysis, 2008-14 51
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2008-14 52
Molecule type analysis 53
Externalization analysis 55
Chapter 6 Company financials 57
Key findings 57
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma sales and company-reported total sales, 2002-08 58
Operating costs and profit analysis 59
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2002-08 60
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2002-08 61
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2008-14 62
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2008-14 63
Chapter 7 Key products and competitors 64
Key findings 64
Overview 65
Gastroenterology 66
Kapidex 66
Overview 67
Sales forecast 68
Takeda goes it alone with Prevacid follow-on 68
Major competitive threat from generics 69
Takepron/Prevacid 71
Overview 72
Sales forecast 73
Second-generation PPI sees considerable sales under TAP alliance 73
OTC Prevacid set to launch following US patent expiry 74
Prevacid sales slow as uptake of generic omeprazole continues to rise 74
US exclusivity lost following November 2009 patent expiry 75
Amitiza 76
Overview 77
Sales forecast 78
New bowel disorder therapy launched in 2006 under license from Sucampo 78
Impressive early uptake in the US driven by strong clinical evidence 78
Indication broadening set to enhance venture further 79
Cardiovascular 80
Blopress/Blopress Comp 80
Overview 81
Sales forecast 83
Blockbuster ARB franchise with Japanese patent extension out to 2016 83
Antihypertensive market overview 84
Genericization of ARB class will erode Blopress market share 85
Endocrine, metabolic and genetic disorders 86
Actos/ACTOplus Met 86
Overview 87
Sales forecast 89
Blockbuster antidiabetic gains market-leading status after demise of competitor 89
Overview of TZD therapeutic use 90
Further new launches in place to help safeguard against generic Actos 91
Further growth in Actos franchise sales expected out to patent expiry 91
Alogliptin franchise 93
Overview 94
Sales forecast 96
SYR-322 is seen as Takeda's long-term replacement for Actos in the diabetes market 96
Alogliptin approval delayed by lack of data pertaining to cardiovascular risks 97
Type 2 diabetes market potential set for further expansion 97
Actos/alogliptin combination should add significant value to diabetes franchise 98
Oncology 99
Lupron Depot 99
Overview 100
Sales forecast 101
LHRH agonist gives Takeda market-leading presence in hormonal therapeutic intervention 101
Reformulations help Takeda build successful defense against generic leuprolide 102
Velcade 103
Overview 104
Sales forecast 105
Acquisition of Millennium equips Takeda with enhanced oncology focus 105
Velcade is the market-leading treatment for relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma 105
Label extension boosts uptake following initial approval in third-line setting 106
Velcade in direct competition with Revlimid 106
Immunology & inflammation 107
Enbrel 107
Overview 107
Sales forecast 108
Takeda's biologic presence boosted by Japanese rights to gold standard TNF inhibitor 108
Chapter 8 Appendix 109
R&D pipeline 109
References 112
Abbreviations 112
Exchange rates 114
About Datamonitor 115
About Datamonitor Healthcare 115
Datamonitor consulting 115
Disclaimer 117
List of Tables
Table 1: Takeda - PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Table 2: Takeda future product milestones, 2009-11 26
Table 3: Takeda product portfolio overview ($m), 2002-08 36
Table 4: Takeda product portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14 39
Table 5: Takeda prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2008-14 45
Table 6: Takeda prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2008-14 47
Table 7: Takeda launch portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14 49
Table 8: Takeda core portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14 50
Table 9: Takeda expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14 51
Table 10: Takeda prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2008-14 54
Table 11: Takeda prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2008-14 56
Table 12: Total Takeda sales by business unit ($m), 2002-08 58
Table 13: Takeda operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-08 60
Table 14: Takeda operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-08 61
Table 15: Takeda operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2008-14 62
Table 16: Takeda operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2008-14 63
Table 17: Key products overview 65
Table 18: Kapidex: overview 67
Table 19: Kapidex: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 68
Table 20: Takepron/Prevacid: overview 72
Table 21: Takepron/Prevacid: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 73
Table 22: Amitiza: overview 77
Table 23: Amitiza: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 78
Table 24: Blopress: overview 81
Table 25: Blopress Comp: overview 82
Table 26: Blopress: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 83
Table 27: Blopress Comp: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 83
Table 28: Actos: overview 87
Table 29: ACTOplus Met: overview 88
Table 30: Actos: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 89
Table 31: ACTOplus Met: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 89
Table 32: alogliptin: overview 94
Table 33: alogliptin/Actos combo: overview 95
Table 34: alogliptin: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 96
Table 35: alogliptin/Actos combo: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 96
Table 36: Lupron Depot: overview 100
Table 37: Lupron Depot: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 101
Table 38: Velcade: overview 104
Table 39: Velcade: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 105
Table 40: Enbrel: overview 107
Table 41: Enbrel: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14 108
Table 42: Takeda's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 109
Table 43: Exchange rates, 2009 114
List of Figures
Figure 1: The PharmaVitae Explorer 3
Figure 2: Takeda prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2002-14 6
Figure 3: Takeda's financial performance ($m), 2002-14 7
Figure 4: Annual sales of Takeda's expiry portfolio ($m), 2008-14 9
Figure 5: Oncology investment drives long-term therapeutic strategy 11
Figure 6: Key products in the US PPI market, percentage of total sales, 2008-14 12
Figure 7: Takeda's antidiabetic franchise, sales ($m), 2008-14 14
Figure 8: Takeda SWOT analysis 15
Figure 9: Takeda prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2002-14 34
Figure 10: Key product sales ($m), 2002-14 35
Figure 11: Takeda key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2002-08 37
Figure 12: Takeda key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2008-14 40
Figure 13: Takeda prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2002-14 44
Figure 14: Takeda prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2002-14 46
Figure 15: Takeda launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2008-14 52
Figure 16: Takeda prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2002-14 53
Figure 17: Takeda prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2002-14 55
Figure 18: Takeda operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-14 59
Figure 19: Key products in the US PPI market, percentage of total sales, 2008-14 70
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