Thailand Defence and Security Report Q3 2011

Thai general elections will be held on July 3 2011 with the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) party (also known as ‘Red Shirts’) hoping to take government from the incumbent Democrat Coalition. The heavy-handed rule of the Democrat Party has seen military deployments and crackdowns in the troubled southern regions of the nation, as well as more aggressive politics on the borders of Myanmar and Cambodia have led to thousands of deaths and a long line of deadly military incidents over their term in government.
Despite this, the Democrat government has seen some popularity boosts with a ceasefire signed with Cambodia, after several years of on/off skirmishes. Myanmar incursions have been repelled and the massive deployment of troops into the southern areas of Thailand has seen progress towards the mitigation of the Muslim Insurgency there. With the promise of an end to the long-standing emergency rule and broad progress in easing regional tensions the Democrat government stands a chance of winning the coming elections.
After the quite significant protests in March-May 2010, in which 85 died and 1,378 were injured, 100,000 people lost their jobs or went bankrupt and 35 buildings in the capital Bangkok were burned, the government has become acutely aware of the threat that future red-shirt gatherings pose. Such a gathering is possible, indeed highly likely to reoccur (at least on a smaller scale) if the UDD are defeated in the coming general elections. With this in mind, the army and police forces are being reequipped with more advanced arms and having their funding boosted.
Following the granting of major non-NATO ally status to Thailand, arms imports are set to increase as access is gained to more advanced weapons systems. Thailand’s requirement for intelligence and surveillance capabilities in its counter-insurgency campaigns should fuel a demand for high-technology platforms – in particular command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) equipment. Its desire to develop its domestic defence industry through technology transfers is also expected to encourage greater purchases. Arms exports are likely to be nonexistent, except for a few surplus articles delivered, such as the Bronco aircraft donated to the Philippines in late 2003.
Thailand's real GDP growth will moderate to 3.6% in 2011, from 7.8% in 2010, as high base effects kick in and the inventory restocking cycle winds down. Private consumption will be the main driver of growth, contributing 2.6pp to headline expansion this year.

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Executive Summary . 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Thailand Security SWOT 7
Thailand Defence Industry SWOT 8
Thailand Political SWOT .. 9
Thailand Economic SWOT . 10
Thailand Business Environment SWOT .. 11
Global Political Outlook .. 12
Japan After The Quake 13
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 14
Wild Cards To Watch 18
South East Asia Security Overview .. 20
South East Asia In A Global Context 20
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security. 20
Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia .. 29
The Outlook For South East Asia 31
Security Risk Ratings .. 32
BMI’s Security Ratings 32
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 32
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 33
Thailand’s Security Risk . 33
City Terrorism Rating .. 34
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index . 35
Political Overview 36
Domestic Politics 36
Foreign Policy . 37
Long-Term Political Outlook 39
Security Overview .. 43
Southern Thai Muslim Insurgency . 45
Table: Thai Muslim Insurgents 45
BRN-K . 46
GMIP/PULO . 47
Bilateral And Multilateral Security Relations .. 47
Drugs Trade .. 49
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 50
Armed Forces .. 50
International Deployments . 50
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 51
Market Overview .. 52
Arms Trade Overview .. 52
Procurement Trends And Developments . 53
Competitive Landscape 53
Table: Thailand’s Military Key Players .. 54
Industry Forecast Scenario 55
Armed Forces .. 55
Table: Thailand’s Armed Forces, 2008-2008 (‘000 personnel unless otherwise stated) .. 55
Table: Thailand’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 55
Defence Expenditure . 56
Table: Thailand’s Government Defence Expenditure; 2008-2015 .. 56
Table: Thailand’s Defence Expenditure And % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 57
Defence Trade .. 57
Table: Thailand’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) . 58
Table: Thailand’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) . 58
Table: Thailand’s Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 59
Macroeconomic Outlook . 59
Table: Thailand – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 .. 60
Free Trade Agreements 60
Company Profiles 64
Loxley .. 64
Minebea .. 65
Thai-Italian Interarms Company 66
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data . 67
Section 1: Population 67
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 67
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 68
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 68
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .. 68
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 68
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 69
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 69
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) .. 69
Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012.. 70
BMI Methodology 71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 71
Defence Industry . 71
City Terrorism Rating .. 72
Table: Methodology .. 74
Sources 75
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