BMI View: We are predicting moderate expansion for the Thai freight industry sector in 2011. We see two major trends. On the one hand, the Thai economy is growing at a somewhat lower rate this year, as the country faces global economic headwinds. Offsetting this slowdown, we see some signs of mediumterm strength, including a reasonably strong labour market and a revival of investment growth. As a result of our analysis, BMI now forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 3.6% (following the 7.8% expansion experienced in 2010). On the other hand, freight activity looks like expanding faster than GDP this year, partly because of leads and lags in the supply chain.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 Port of Bangkok tonnage throughput growth is forecast at 5.4%, and estimated to average 4.4% a year to 2015.
?? 2011 Port of Laem Chabang tonnage throughput growth forecast 8.1%, and to average 6.6% per annum to 2015.
?? 2011 air freight tonnes growth forecast 5.17%, and to average 4.6% per annum to 2015.
?? 2011 rail freight tonnage throughput growth forecast 7.7%, and to average 6.6% per annum to 2015.
Key Industry Trends
Report Highlights Transport Infrastructure Deficit – A report by KResearch says a shortfall of transport infrastructure investment is holding back Thailand's competitiveness. The report says transport and logistics costs could be as much as 18% of GDP this year, and each percentage point this could be reduced would save the country over US$3bn. It is necessary, KResearch said, to accelerate investment in major railway lines, airports and ports.
Burma Moving Ahead With US$8bn Dawei Project – Thai exports will have a new western route, through Daiwei port. The Italian-Thai Development Company, selected late last year to execute the US$8bn project, says the port will become 'a gateway to Indochina and south China'. While Daiwei will reduce transport costs and shipping times, it could also take business away from Bangkok Port. BECL Bidding for New Concession – Bangkok Expresswat (BECL) was expected to bid fo a 30-year concession for the 17km Sri Rat-Outer Ring Road Expfessway, a project worth just under US$600mn, and due to be delivered through a public-private partnership (PPP). Once operational, the expressway is expected to have traffic volume of 80,000 vehicles per day.
Key Risks to Outlook
The general elections in July pose the major risk to our forecasts. On the downside we fear that an opposition victory for the Puea Thai Party could usher in a new cycle of instability. The party's prime ministerial candidate, Yingluck Shinawatra, is the sister of exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, and efforts to bring him back to power could spark a new military coup and another turn in the ongoing political conflict the country has experienced since 2006. At its worst, a new crisis might trigger renewed mass protests and associated disruption of economic activity. BMI also notes, however, that a victory by the ruling Democrat Party coalition would have upside risks for our forecasts.
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