Thailand Petrochemicals Report Q4 2011

While Thai petrochemicals capacity has been expanded with an eye on export growth, domestic consumption will play an important role in the industry’s growth in 2011, according to BMI’s latest Thailand Petrochemicals Report. Private consumption is the main driver of growth in 2011, reaching a forecast 5.0% in 2011, unchanged from 2010. With low unemployment and growth in wages, there is a likelihood of strong growth from a broad range of domestic plastics consuming industries.
In H111 ethylene output was up 16.0% y-o-y while propylene was down 2.8%. In the polymers segment, PP grew 33.7%, but PE was down 16.7% and growth in PS and PVC was only 1.8% and 1.5% respectively. PP grew in line with rising PP capacity, but PVC and PE have moderated from the peaks seen in Q410. Annual industrial growth is set to fall from 6.0% in 2010 to 4.5% from 2011. As such, petrochemicals growth may face considerable headwinds in 2011 in the event that inventory restocking begins to turn negative.
A slew of plants are coming on stream in 2011 after a court order suspending 76 industrial projects at Map Ta Phut was lifted on all but two. Many of the projects are at least a year overdue, although BMI believes it may have been difficult to operate them at full capacity if they had opened in 2010 due to volatile market conditions and the effect of Gulf-based petrochemicals expansion on Asian petrochemicals prices.
Investment continues to increase in the Thai petrochemicals sector. In June 2011 Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (MGC) began expanding polyacetal engineering plastic capacity at its Thai Polyacetal joint venture at Map Ta Phut. It is debottlenecking the existing 55,000tpa to 60,000tpa and is planning to build a 40,000tpa polyacetal facility, which will raise the total at the site to 100,000tpa. Both projects are expected on line in 2013. Meanwhile, IRPC announced plans to increase its ABS production by 50% to 180,000tpa to capitalise on growing demand for the product in electrical and electronic goods. Dow Chemical has also announced plans for a new petrochemicals plant in Map Ta Phut to more than triple its production capacity of speciality films used in photovoltaic modules for solar power installations. Construction will begin in 2012.
In BMI’s Asia Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings matrix, Thailand scores 67.2 points, up 0.1 point due to an improvement in the country’s long-term external risk rating. It is in sixth place, 5.7 points behind Taiwan and 3.6 points ahead of Malaysia.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Thailand Petrochemicals Industry SWOT 6
Thailand Political SWOT 7
Thailand Economic SWOT 8
Thailand Business Environment SWOT 9
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2010 And 2015 (‘000 tonnes capacity) 10
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 16
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/BBL) 17
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/BBL) 19
Emerging Asia Petrochemicals Overview 20
Thailand Market Overview 24
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Data, 2009-2015 (‘000tpa) 24
Market Evolution 25
Industry Trends and Developments 27
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemical Projects 27
Political Risk and the Petrochemicals Industry 27
Mergers and acquisitions 28
Latest Developments 30
Olefins 31
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector – Ethylene Capacity (tpa) 32
Aromatics 33
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector – Aromatics Capacity (tpa) 33
Polymers 34
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector – Polyethylene Capacity (tpa) 34
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector – Polypropylene Capacity (tpa) 34
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector – Polyvinyl Chloride Capacity (tpa) 34
Table: Thailand Petrochemicals Sector – Polystyrene Capacity 35
Financial Results 37
Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings 38
Table: Asia Pacific Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings 38
Industry Forecast Scenario 41
Petrochemicals Forecasts 41
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector, 2008-2015 (‘000 tpa, unless otherwise stated) 43
Macroeconomic Outlook 45
Table: Thailand - Economic Activity 2008-2015 47
Company Monitor 48
Indorama Polymers Public Company Limited (IRP PCL) 48
Integrated Refinery and Petrochemicals Company (IRPC) 50
PTT Aromatics and Refining (PTTAR) 51
PTT Chemical (PTTC) 52
PTT Public Company 54
Siam Cement/Cementhai Chemicals Company (CCC) 57
Glossary of Terms 59
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 59
BMI Methodology 60
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 60
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Industry 60
Cross Checks 61
Business Environment Ratings 62
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 63
Weighting 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64
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