Thailand Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011

This latest BMI Thailand Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 3.60% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 3.46% of supply. Regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to rise to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.92mn b/d 2010. It is set to decrease to 7.88mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2010, the region was importing an average 18.15mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 22.34mn b/d in 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia. In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. Thailand’s share of gas consumption in 2015 is put at 7.54%, while its share of production is estimated at 5.93%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012. Thai real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 3.6% in 2011, and we expect an average annual increase of 4.1% in 2011-2015. State-controlled PTTEP and international oil company (IOC) partners are working hard to secure domestic oil and gas volumes, with only limited success in terms of crude oil. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 272,500b/d by 2015, although the country is expected to pump 337,000b/d in 2011. We expect consumption to increase by 2-3% per annum in 2011- 2015, implying demand of 1.09mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 817,000b/d by 2015. End-period gas consumption of an estimated 50.1bcm outstrips likely supply of 33.0bcm.
We are forecasting a 38.9% reduction in Thai oil production between 2011 and 2020, with crude volumes falling steadily to 206,000b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 is set to increase by 24.0%, with growth slowing to less than 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.2mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to plateau at around 34bcm in 2011-2013, before slipping to 28bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 48.8%, this will require imports to rise to nearly 35bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found at the back of this report.
Thailand holds sixth place below Japan in BMI’s composite Risk/Reward Ratings table. It holds fifth place above Pakistan in BMI’s updated upstream ratings, reflecting a modest resource position, moderate gas growth outlook and an IOC-friendly competitive environment. Thailand ranks equal seventh with the Philippines in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its above-average gas demand and relatively low level of retail site intensity.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Thailand Political SWOT 9
Thailand Economic SWOT 10
Thailand Business Environment SWOT 11
Thailand Energy Market Overview 12
Regional Energy Market Overview 13
Oil Supply And Demand 13
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 13
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 14
Oil: Downstream 15
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 15
Gas Supply And Demand 16
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 16
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 17
Liquefied Natural Gas 18
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 18
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 19
Asia Pacific Region 19
Composite Scores 20
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating 20
Upstream Scores 21
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating 21
Thailand Upstream Rating – Overview 22
Thailand Upstream Rating – Rewards 22
Thailand Upstream Rating – Risks 22
Downstream Scores 23
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating 23
Business Environment 24
Legal Framework 24
Property Rights 25
Corruption 26
Physical Infrastructure 27
Labour Force 28
Foreign Investment Policy 29
Foreign Trade Regime 30
Tax Regime 31
Security Risk 32
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Oil And Gas Reserves 33
Oil Supply And Demand 33
Gas Supply And Demand 34
LNG 35
Refining And Oil Products Trade 35
Revenues/Import Costs 36
Table: Thailand Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 36
Other Energy 37
Table: Thailand Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 37
Key Risks To Forecast Scenario 38
Long-term Energy Outlook 38
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 39
Oil Refineries 39
Table: Refineries In Thailand 39
Service Stations 40
Oil Storage Facilities 40
Oil Terminals/Ports 40
Oil Pipelines 41
LNG Terminals 41
Gas Pipelines 41
Gas Processing Plants 43
Macroeconomic Outlook 44
Table: Thailand – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 46
Competitive Landscape 47
Executive Summary 47
Table: Key Players – Thailand Oil And Gas Sector 48
Overview/State Role 49
Licensing And Regulation 49
Government Policy 49
Licensing Rounds 50
International Energy Relations 51
Table: Key Upstream Players 52
Table: Key Downstream Players 52
Company Monitor 53
PTT 53
PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) 57
Chevron 60
Esso (Thailand) Plc 64
Thai Shell Co Ltd 66
Salamander Energy 68
Total – Summary 71
Hess – Summary 71
Star Petroleum – Summary 71
BG Group – Summary 72
Pan Orient Energy – Summary 72
Coastal Energy – Summary 73
Carnarvon Petroleum – Summary 74
Others – Summary 75
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 77
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 77
Regional Oil Supply 78
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 78
Regional Refining Capacity 79
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 79
Regional Gas Demand 80
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 80
Regional Gas Supply 81
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 81
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 82
Glossary Of Terms 83
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 84
Ratings Overview 84
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 85
Indicators 85
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 85
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 86
BMI Methodology 88
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 88
Energy Industry 89
Cross checks 89
Sources 89
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