Thailand Telecommunications Report Q4 2011

This quarter's update to BMI's Thailand Telecommunications Report takes into account the latest (Q211) key performance indicators from two of the largest operators – mobile players AIS and DTAC – and Q111 data from all other operators and the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC). Broadly, the downward trend in the fixed-line segment and expansion in the fixed and mobile broadband markets were in line with expectations and we have not needed to adjust our 2011-15 forecasts for these markets. The mobile market is rather more robust than we had expected, judging by H111 results, and we have slightly raised our five-year outlook accordingly.
We also have a better insight into the make-up of the mobile market following True's acquisition of the CDMA wireless business of Hutchison. True has taken the opportunity to create a new wireless group, which encompasses its TrueMove GSM unit, the Hutch CDMA business and a new entity geared towards developing a national 3G platform. This latter goal is to be achieved either with or without stateowned CAT Telecom – which had partnered with Hutchison – though legal action brought by rival DTAC may prematurely end advanced plans to establish joint HSPA services. TOT, meanwhile, is said to be working with AIS to develop 900MHz HSPA 3G services, but that project may also come to naught if the new Thai government decides to rethink the way 3G services are offered in Thailand. This mix of positive demand for the proposed advanced services (smartphone sales are strong at AIS, DTAC and TrueMove) combined with political interference in licensing permeates our mobile market forecast. We forecast 91.9mn mobile subscribers by 2015 – a small increase on our previous view – but see little opportunity for 3G connections to also increase.
Efforts by broadband providers such as True and Triple T Broadband, which have aggressively marketed their products in response to buoyant demand for high-speed services, means that BMI expects the Thai broadband market will continue to grow robustly. We envisage 3.390mn broadband subscribers by end-2011, and we expect this number to increase to 4.769mn by 2015, representing a penetration rate of 6.8%. Meanwhile, we continue to forecast the number of fixed-line subscriber in the country to fall to 6.579mn in 2011 as the fixed-to-mobile service migration accelerates.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Thailand Wireline (Fixed Line & Broadband) SWOT 8
Thailand Mobile SWOT 8
Thailand Political SWOT 9
Thailand Economic SWOT 10
Thailand Business Environment SWOT 10
Business Environment Ratings 11
Asia Pacific 11
Asia Pacific Business Environment Ratings, Q411 15
Thailand 15
Industry Forecast Scenario 17
Mobile 17
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 17
ARPU 19
Table: Telecoms Sector – ARPU – Historical Data & Forecasts 19
Fixed Line 21
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts 21
Internet 23
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts 23
Market Data Analysis 25
Mobile Market Overview 25
Table: Thai Mobile Market March 2011 25
Table: Thai Mobile Net Additions Market March 2011 27
Table: Thailand Operator Subscriber Mix (‘000) 28
Blended Minutes Of Use By Operator (min) 29
3G 31
Mobile Contract Wins 38
Table: Key Mobile Contract Wins 38
Mobile Operator Data 39
Table: Thailand Market Overview 39
Table: AIS 39
Table: DTAC 41
Table: True 42
Mobile Content 44
Regional Outlook 44
Country Outlook 45
Value-Added Services Timeline 49
Table: Selected VAS Services (2008-2011) 49
Fixed Line 50
Table: True Revenue From Fixed-Line Telephony (%) 52
Payphones 54
Table: Thailand's Payphone Market By Operator, 2009 54
Internet 56
Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments 65
Table: Wireline Developments, 2009-2010 65
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments 66
Table: Thailand’s Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 66
3G Licensing 67
WiMAX Licences 69
Regulatory Developments 70
Competitive Landscape 71
Key Players 71
Table: Key Players – Thai Telecoms Sector 71
Table: Selected Operators’ Financial Results (US$mn) 72
Company Monitor 73
Huawei Technologies 73
Table: Vendors' Financial Performance (US$mn), 2009-2010 73
Table: Selected Huawei Contract Wins, 2010-2011 76
Operators Profiles 80
TOT 80
True Corporation 84
Advanced Info Service (AIS) 88
DTAC 91
True Wireless Group (TrueMove, TrueMove H, Hutch) 94
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 97
Fixed Line 97
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 97
Mobile 98
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 98
Broadband 99
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 99
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data 100
Section 1: Population 100
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 100
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 101
Section 2: Education and Healthcare 101
Table: Education, 2002-2005 101
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 101
Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power 102
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 102
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 102
Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012103
Glossary Of Terms 104
Table: Glossary Of Terms 104
BMI Methodology 105
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 105
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 105
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 107
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 107
Table: Ratings Indicators 108
Weighting 109
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 109
Sources 109
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]