Thailand Tourism Report Q3 2011

Strong Start To 2011 Thailand’s tourist industry returned to strong growth in the first quarter of 2011, following minimal growth of 0.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2010. The Ministry of Sports and Tourism announced in May that visitor arrivals had grown by an impressive 14.7% y-o-y in Q111, with arrivals totalling 5.3mn. This marks a strong recovery after three years of faltering growth and reflects Thailand’s increasingly stable political situation, as much as the recovering global economy. It is particularly notable that Thailand has begun officially releasing tourism data again following a two-year period of sporadic statistical releases, indicating that the ministry believes Thailand has now returned to a positive growth trend.
Unsurprisingly, the coastal resort areas posted the strongest arrivals figures, with Phuket in particular posting a surge in arrivals. Of the overall arrivals, the largest destination country was Malaysia, with 588,000 arrivals. China and Russia also posted impressive market growth, of 30% and 40% y-o-y respectively. European markets posted minimal growth, suggesting that the economic recovery has yet to take hold fully in the region. We expect Thailand’s recovery to continue throughout 2011, with particularly high growth rates in the second quarter representing a statistical rebound from Q210, which was characterised by high levels of political protests and unrest.
Budget Airlines Boom In Thailand With the tourist industry recovering, the flurry of new airline start-ups has continued into Q2. In May, the board of national carrier Thai Airways approved in principle the creation of a new regional airline, provisionally titled Thai Wing. This new airline is pitched at middle-income passengers and therefore will not be in direct competition with the budget airline sector, which includes the soon-to-be-launched Thai Tiger line, a joint venture between Thai Airways and Singapore’s Tiger Airways, The launch of Thai Wing is provisionally scheduled for May 2012 and the new airline will operate with seven aircraft.
The new airline represents part of Thai Airways’ long-term plan to maintain market share in the country, by establishing itself at all passenger income levels, This will be particularly important for the national carrier following its financial struggles during the global economic downturn.
Focus On Nakon Nayok The central province of Nakon Nayok is an increasingly popular destination for both domestic and international tourists. Only 100km from Bangkok, the province is a frequent weekend destination for Bangkok residents as well as being a stage on many tours of the country. The province has a number of cultural centres, including the San Lak Mueang shrine and the Ban Dong Lakhon archaeological site. However, Nakon Nayok is most famous for its natural attractions, particularly the stunning waterfalls at Namtok Sarika. As a result, the province offers a large number of adventure sports, such as white water rafting and kayaking, often in Khao Yai National Park. Although the province receives a relatively small number of foreign tourists, it is seeking to build up its tourist industry, through increased marketing and ventures with foreign tour operators.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Thailand Tourism SWOT 7
Thailand Political SWOT 8
Thailand Economic SWOT 9
Thailand Business Environment SWOT 10
Industry Forecast Scenario . 11
Arrivals 11
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 12
Accommodation . 13
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 (‘000). 13
Expenditure 13
Table: Tourism Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2007-2015 . 13
Inbound Tourism 14
Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 14
Outbound Tourism . 15
Outbound Tourism, 2007-2015 . 15
Market Overview – Travel 16
Commercial Airlines 16
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 19
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl). 19
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) . 22
Market Overview – Hospitality 24
Tourism Infrastructure . 24
Accommodation . 25
Regional Case Study: InterContinental Hotels Group (Asia Pacific) . 27
Special Focus: Ecotourism 27
H1N1 And H5N1 Update 29
Business Environment Outlook 31
Table: Asia Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 31
BMI’s Security Ratings 32
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 32
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 33
Thailand’s Security Risk Ratings 33
City Terrorism Ratings 34
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index . 35
South East Asia Security Overview 36
Global Assumptions, Q311. 48
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 48
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 49
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 49
Developed States 50
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 50
Emerging Markets 51
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 52
Consensus Forecasts 53
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) . 53
Company Profiles 54
Centara Hotels & Resorts . 54
Dusit Thani Hotels & Resorts . 56
Thai Airways International . 57
BMI Methodology 59
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 59
Tourism Industry . 59
Tourism Ratings – Methodology . 60
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 61
Table: Weighting of Components 62
City Terrorism Ratings 62
Table: City Terrorism Risk Methodology 64
Sources 64
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