Overview 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
Executive Summary 2
Introduction 2
The Future Decoded 2
Consumers are increasingly opting to stay in 2
Off-trade drinking continues to grow as consumers on-trade consumption stagnates 2
At-home drinking occasions are increasingly diverse 2
The 'discount trap' presents a problem for building value from off-trade sales 3
Consumers seek on-trade quality experiences in the home 3
Consumers are "front-loading" at home before going out 3
Smoking bans are influencing consumers' off-trade drinking behavior 4
Attempts to build value in the off-trade may be influenced by the threatened housing/credit crunch 4
Health considerations are changing consumers' at-home alcoholic drinking behavior 4
Action Points 5
THE FUTURE DECODED 7
INTRODUCTION: The strategic importance of the off-trade to the industry is growing 7
TREND: Consumers are increasingly opting to stay in 7
Improving and investing in the home encourages consumers to spend more time there 8
Consumers are focusing on the home as a comfortable retreat 9
US consumers' favorite summer evenings center around home and outdoor social activities 9
Cocooning has evolved: consumers want to share their homes with others 10
Home entertainment options continue to grow in sophistication 11
Take-outs and implications: consumers want products that complement their home-based needs 12
TREND: Off-trade drinking is growing while consumers' on-trade consumption stagnates 12
Off-trade sales in the US lead those in Europe as a share of total sales 13
At-home alcoholic beverage occasions outnumber going out 14
Per capita at-home and going out occasions vary significantly from country to country 15
UK consumers drink the most alcohol per on-trade occasion 16
Consumers are critical of on-trade value for money 18
Price sensitivity plays a role in directing off-trade consumption, but is far from the only factor 19
It is also important to recognize that there are other factors beyond price driving the trend 20
Take-outs and implications: industry players should place increasing emphasis on the need states of consumers drinking at home 21
TREND: At-home drinking occasions are increasingly diverse 21
Entertaining at home is a significant sub-trend in at-home alcohol consumption 22
Sports events fuel male at-home drinking behaviors 24
Beer is inherently social, both on and off-trade 25
Alcohol consumption at home is increasingly allied to meal occasions 25
Aging populations will add to the growth in at-home alcoholic beverage occasions 26
Weekend alcoholic drinking occasions increasingly occur in the home 28
Take-outs and implications: diverse drinking occasions at home have untapped potential, particularly with regard to premiumization 30
INSIGHT: The "discount trap" presents a problem for building value from off-trade sales 30
Price-based promotions in the off-trade can negatively impact overall brand equity 31
Beer continues to be particularly at risk from cut-price image problems 31
Younger consumers are migrating between cheap sub-premium beer and specialty brews 31
Take-outs and implications: a major threat to off-trade value generation is the continued emphasis on cut price promotion at the expense of building long term brand equity 33
INSIGHT: Consumers want to replicate on-trade quality and experiences in the home 33
Consumers' experiential expectations are high 34
Premium-hungry shoppers are looking for the latest on-trade trends on retail shelves 34
Poor on-trade experiences and choices are putting consumers off frequenting the channel 36
The 'insperiences' trend means that alcoholic beverage consumers are recreating aspects of the on-trade at home with greater regularity 37
Insperiences are offering consumers high quality on-trade experiences with home convenience 37
Insperiences and entertaining at-home are tied to the rise of the kitchen as a prominent social space 38
The propensity for consumers to pair alcohol and food is a developing trend with historical precedent 39
Take-outs and implications: it is important to appeal to off-trade consumers by emphasizing the premium experience that brands can offer in the comfort of the home 40
INSIGHT: Consumers are "front-loading" at home before going out 40
Europeans show a higher propensity for front-loading than US consumers 40
The growth in front loading among UK consumers is particularly notable 41
Sweden has the lowest per capita occasions of the countries covered 41
Germany is experiencing the fastest decline in both quiet drinking and front-loading occasions 41
Take-outs and implications: front-loading is a growth occasion but presents difficulties for encouraging up-trading 44
INSIGHT: Smoking bans are influencing consumers' off-trade drinking behavior 44
Smoking has been linked to higher alcohol consumption among consumers 45
Smokers constitute a sizeable share of the drinking demographic 45
Smoking bans have impacted on on-trade sales and changed some consumers' on-trade drinking behavior 46
Smoking bans may influence the off-trade behaviors of both smokers and non-smokers 46
Take-outs and implications: smoking bans may not have a fundamental impact on the balance between on and off-trade alcohol occasions 47
INSIGHT: Trading-up in the off-trade may be restricted by the looming housing and credit crunch 48
Consumers may look for economies by staying-in 48
Take-outs and implications: the industry must prepare for consumers tightening their belts and look to the off-trade for opportunities 49
INSIGHT: Health considerations are changing consumers' at-home alcoholic drinking behavior 49
Consumers are moderating their alcoholic beverage consumption 50
Alcohol choices at home are being influenced by health considerations 50
Health and premiumization foster "less but better" approaches to alcohol consumption 51
At-home drinking faces a threat from the so-called "assault on pleasure" 51
Take-outs and implications: health and premiumization are complementary trends in the alcoholic beverage space in an era of increasing alcohol disapproval 52
INSIGHT: There is evidence that student drinking habits are shifting, thereby affecting on and off-trade behavior 52
Take-outs and implications: industry players must recognize students' changing priorities 53
ACTION POINTS 54
ACTION: Ensure the off-trade and on-trade brand positioning is complementary 54
Avoid a disconnection between pricing and marketing messages that confuses brand identity 54
Ensure that your alcoholic beverage brand stands for something: take ownership of important product trends 55
Control the discounting impulse if it threatens brand caché 56
ACTION: Align products more directly with off-trade need states and occasions 57
Capitalize on the fact that relaxation at home connects with individualism and reward 57
Market products that "enable" traditional male events 58
Covet the opportunities offered through the home entertaining occasion 58
Facilitate social drinking with products that enable sharing or shared experiences 59
Trusted brands can be allied to front-loading occasions 60
ACTION: Adjust portfolios in recognition of the defining consumer trends shaping preferences 61
Recognize that light beers are well placed to capitalize on the wellness trend 61
Help fulfill consumers desire for experimentation and self-expression 62
Allow consumers to act on the "less but better" impulse with widened portfolios that support trading up 62
Respond to the "Natural" trend 63
Organic credentials will become increasingly important 63
ACTION: Take the on-trade to the home through branded events 64
Branded 'insperiences' are a rapidly developing opportunity 64
Look for new opportunities to offer branded experiences in the consumers' home 64
Align brands with new, popular forms of at-home entertainment 64
Co-branding possibilities exist in the home entertainment arena 65
ACTION: Emphasize the specific links between alcohol and food 66
APPENDIX 68
Supplementary data 68
Definitions 69
Methodology 70
Further reading and references 70
Ask the analyst 70
Datamonitor consulting 71
Disclaimer 71
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