Trinidad & Tobago Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012

BMI View: Trinidad & Tobago’s vital LNG sector faces an uncertain future. The industry was largely developed to deliver gas to the US market, which at the time was expected to be subject to an ever-rising import requirement. The proliferation of gas production from shale formations across the US, however, has dramatically reduced the need for imports and T&T has been forced to look for new export destinations in an increasingly crowded global LNG market. Oil production is forecast to decline as the country struggles to attract interest in new deepwater exploration.
?? Trinidad and Tobago (T&T)’s oil and gas sector has been buoyed by high oil prices, but the uncomfortable reality is that oil production and exports have been declining – something that is likely to continue unless significant investment is made in new exploration. BMI forecasts that oil production will fall from 141,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to 127,000b/d in 2016. Oil consumption is expected to rise steadily over the same period, from 42,230b/d in 2010 to just over 53,000b/d by 2016. Oil supply and demand trends mean that T&T’s net oil exports will shrink from over 100,000b/d in 2010 to less than 75,000b/d by 2016.
?? The short- to medium-term outlook for the country’s gas sector is more positive, as T&T will remain an important regional liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. Gas production is forecast to rise from 42.1bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 47bcm in 2016, as new projects come onstream over the next few years. Strong production growth will outpace a moderate rise in consumption, which should see net gas export capacity rise from around 20bcm in 2011 to 21.56bcm by 2016.
?? While export capacity should rise, T&T will face challenges as it struggles to find markets for its gas. Much of the export industry was developed with a focus firmly fixed on the US, but the shale gas boom has dramatically reduced the need for the import of LNG. As a result, the country will increasingly look to the European market and the booming Asian market, though its geographical distance from markets such as China and Japan may hinder its ability to compete with projects being developed in Malaysia and Australia.
?? Over the long term, we forecast a similar trend of dwindling oil supply but rising gas production. We forecast that oil production will decline steadily to around 110,000b/d by 2021, and the continued increase in domestic demand for that oil will see volumes available for export dwindle to less than 50,000b/d. Limited deepwater exploration, which is being carried out by BP and other companies, poses some upside risk to these long-term forecasts. Gas production, on the other hand, should rise to 52bcm by 2020, with the consumption trend implying net export capacity of just over 21bcm. Again, however, T&T will have to find alternatives to the US market.

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SWOT Analysis 6
Trinidad & Tobago Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016 10
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 11
Regional Energy Market Outlook 12
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016 14
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 15
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016 16
Gas Supply And Demand 17
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016 18
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016 18
Liquefied Natural Gas 19
Table: Latin America LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016 19
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Trinidad & Tobago Energy Market Overview 20
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Upstream Projects Database 21
Industry Forecast Scenario 23
Oil and Gas Reserves 23
Oil Supply And Demand 24
Gas Supply And Demand 24
LNG 25
Refining and Oil Products Trade 26
Revenues/Import Costs 26
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 26
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 27
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 29
Oil Refineries 29
Table: Refineries In Trinidad & Tobago 29
Service Stations 30
Oil Storage Facilities 30
Oil Terminals/ Ports 30
LNG Terminals 30
Table: LNG Terminals In Trinidad & Tobago 30
Gas Storage Facilities 31
Gas Pipelines 31
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Latin America Region 33
Composite Scores 33
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Upstream Scores 34
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Downstream Scores 35
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report Q1 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Competitive Landscape 36
Executive Summary 36
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Players 37
Overview/State Role 38
Licensing And Regulation 38
Government Policy 39
Licensing Rounds 39
Table: Key Upstream Players 41
Table: Key Downstream Players 41
Company Monitor 42
Petroleum Company of T&T (Petrotrin) 42
The National Gas Company of Trinidad & Tobago (NGC) 44
BP Energy Company of Trinidad & Tobago (BPTT) 48
BG Trinidad & Tobago 51
BHP Petroleum Trinidad 54
Centrica 56
EOG Resources 58
Sinopec – Summary 60
Chevron – Summary 60
Repsol YPF – Summary 60
Total – Summary 60
ALNG – Summary 61
Unipet – Summary 61
Niko Resources – Summary 61
Others – Summary 61
Former IOC Partners – Summary 62
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts 64
Regional Oil Demand 64
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021 64
Regional Oil Supply 65
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021 65
Regional Gas Demand 66
Table: Latin America Long-Term Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021 66
Regional Gas Supply 67
Table: Latin America – Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021 67
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 68
Glossary Of Terms 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms 69
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 71
Ratings Overview 71
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 72
Indicators 73
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 73
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 74
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