Turkey Defence and Security Report Q3 2011

Of the 28 NATO members, Turkey has the second largest armed forces, behind only the US. This is primarily due to its geopolitical importance as a member of NATO and its strategic location in three main regions of crisis – the Balkans, the Caucasus and the Middle East. At present the number of active personnel in the armed forces in Turkey, excluding paramilitary forces, totals about 510,700. Although there are ongoing efforts for this number to be reduced, the Turkish armed forces still rank among the 10 largest armies of the world, with others including the US, China and India. In 2010 the Turkish army comprised 510,600 personnel, with the sheer size of the army posing various challenges for the military. The navy and air force are only a sixth of the size of the army at 48,000 and 60,000 respectively.
NATO’s ownership of the intervention in Libya was initially resisted by Turkey, which opposed Western military intervention in Libya. However, it was even more fiercely opposed to the notion of France assuming leadership of a coalition of the willing. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s relationship with Sarkozy has long been rocky, not least because of French opposition to Turkish membership of the EU. Erdogan was incensed when Sarkozy omitted to invite Turkey to the international conference on Libya which France convened in Paris on 19 March to try to organize political control of the operation to be launched under the UN mandate. He therefore did an about-turn and made common cause with Cameron in lobbying for NATO to assume operational command We continue to see the Turkish economy growing by 4.3% this year and forecast an average growth rate of 4.9% through to 2015 as the Turkish consumer benefits from stronger purchasing power over the coming years. However, we note that substantial headwinds are brewing, especially if the current monetary policy mix fails to pre-empt an inflationary spike stemming from still rising credit growth and soaring global commodity prices.

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Executive Summary 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Turkey Security SWOT 7
Turkey Defence Industry SWOT 7
Turkey Political SWOT 8
Turkey Economic SWOT 8
Turkey Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook 10
Japan After The Quake 11
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 12
Wild Cards To Watch 16
Middle East Security Overview 18
Political Risk Analysis – The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 18
The Middle East In A Global Context 18
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 18
Regional Power Dynamics 28
Nuclear Proliferation 30
External Powers 31
Scenarios For The Middle East 32
Europe Security Overview 34
Political Risk Analysis: The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 34
Europe In A Global Context 34
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 34
Security Risk Analysis 40
BMI’s Security Ratings 40
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings 40
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 41
Table: Europe’s Security Risk Ratings 42
Table: Europe’s State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 43
Turkey’s Security Risk Ratings 43
City Terrorism Rating 45
Table: BMI’s Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index 45
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index 46
Political Overview 48
Long-Term Political Outlook 48
Foreign Policy 52
Security Overview 57
Internal Security Situation 57
Table: Insurgent Groups 57
External Security Situation 58
Table: Background Brief – Cyprus 59
Armed Forces And Government Spending 61
Armed Forces 61
International Deployments 62
Table: Foreign Deployments 62
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 63
Market Structure 65
Arms Trade Overview 66
Industry Trends And Developments 66
Table: Key Players In Turkey’s Defence Sector 67
Procurement Trends And Developments 68
Latest Developments 68
Industry Forecast Scenario 70
Armed Forces 70
Table: Turkey’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 70
Table: Turkey’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 70
Defence Expenditure 70
Table: Turkish Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 71
Table: Turkey’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 US$mn) 72
Defence Trade 72
Table: Turkey’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 72
Table: Turkey’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 73
Table: Turkey's Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 74
Macroeconomic Outlook 74
Company Profiles 77
Aselsan Military Electronics Industry Inc 77
Havelsan AS 78
Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data 80
Section 1: Population 80
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 80
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 81
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 81
Table: Education, 2002-2005 81
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 81
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 82
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 82
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 82
BMI Methodology 83
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 83
Defence Industry 83
City Terrorism Rating 84
Table: Methodology 86
Sources 87
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