Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011

The latest Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.3% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 2.5% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.9mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bcm, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 2,26bcm by the end of the period. Turkmenistan’s share of consumption in 2010 was an estimated 3.5%, while its share of production is put at 5.4%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 4.3%, with the country accounting for 9.3% of supply.
Domestic consumption trends can be expected to return to a strong growth tack from 2010 onwards, estimated at an average of 5.0% per annum. By 2015, the country could be using 160,000b/d of oil. Turkmenistan has traditionally been protective of its onshore basins, allowing international oil companies (IOCs) to participate only in offshore developments. Offshore activity should help raise national crude and gas liquids output from an estimated 216,000b/d in 2010 to 375,000b/d by 2015. Gas production is expected to increase from an estimated 42bcm to 90bcm between 2010 and 2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Turkmen oil and gas liquids production of 56.9%, with volumes peaking at 375,000b/d in 2015, before falling to 339,000b/d at the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption is set to increase by 62.9% between 2010 and 2020, with growth of 5.0% per annum and the country using 204,000b/d by 2020. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 42bcm to 140bcm by 2020, providing export potential increasing from an estimated 20bcm to 95bcm.
Turkmenistan shares 11th place with Uzbekistan in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It shares eighth place with Croatia and Uzbekistan in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, gas reserves, and asset immaturity work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by an unappealing risk environment. Scope exists for Turkmenistan to break away from its immediate rivals and to move further up the table.
Turkmenistan is in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, with few particularly high scores and progress further up the ratings unlikely over the next few quarters. Oil and gas demand growth prospects represent strong suits, putting the country in joint 10th place, alongside Slovenia.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Turkmenistan Political SWOT 7
Turkmenistan Economic SWOT 7
Turkmenistan Business Environment SWOT 8
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview 9
Regional Energy Market Overview 12
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) 13
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) 14
Oil: Downstream 15
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 15
Gas Supply And Demand 16
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) 16
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) 17
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 18
Business Environment Ratings 19
Central/Eastern Europe Region 19
Composite Scores 20
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 20
Upstream Scores 21
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating 21
Turkmenistan Upstream Rating – Overview 22
Turkmenistan Upstream Rating – Rewards 22
Turkmenistan Upstream Rating – Risks 22
Downstream Scores 23
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating 23
Turkmenistan Downstream Rating – Overview 24
Turkmenistan Downstream Rating – Rewards 24
Turkmenistan Downstream Rating – Risks 24
Risk Summary 25
Political 25
Economic 25
Business Environment 25
Industry Forecast Scenario 26
Oil And Gas Reserves 26
Oil Supply And Demand 27
Gas Supply And Demand 27
Refining And Oil Products Trade 28
Revenues/Import Costs 29
Table: Turkmenistan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 29
Other Energy 31
Table: Turkmenistan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 31
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 31
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook 31
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 33
Oil Refineries 33
Oil Storage Facilities 33
Oil Terminals/Ports 33
Oil Pipelines 34
Gas Pipelines 34
Macroeconomic Outlook 38
Table: Turkmenistan - Monetary Policy 38
Competitive Landscape 39
Executive Summary 39
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies 40
Overview/State Role 40
Licensing And Regulation 40
Government Policy 41
International Energy Relations 41
Table: Key Upstream Players 46
Table: Downstream Player 46
Company Monitor 47
Eni 47
Dragon Oil 49
Petronas – Summary 52
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) – Summary 52
Gazprom – Summary 53
Itera – Summary 53
RWE – Summary 54
Others – Summary 54
Service Companies 55
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 56
Regional Oil Demand 56
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) 56
Regional Oil Supply 57
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) 57
Regional Refining Capacity 58
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 59
Regional Gas Demand 60
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) 60
Regional Gas Supply 61
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) 61
Turkmenistan Country Overview 61
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 62
Glossary Of Terms 63
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology 64
Introduction 64
Ratings Overview 64
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 65
Indicators 65
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 66
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology 67
BMI Methodology 69
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 69
Energy Industry 70
Cross Checks 70
Sources 70
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