Uganda Defence and Security Report Q3 2011

As President Yoweri Museveni’s government appeared to have successfully weathered demonstrations through Q211, BMI expects Uganda’s defence spending to grow more slowly by 4.9% to US$472mn in 2011. This represents a drop of 3%, though as a proportion of government expenditure defence will rise to 13.4%, and follows a surge of 37.21% to US$450mn in 2010.
In protests reminiscent of widespread anti-government unrest that swept across the Middle East and North Africa in late 2010 and early 2011, thousands of Ugandans emerged in the so-called ‘walk to work’ protests in April 2011. Endorsed and sometimes led by opposition leader Kizza Besigye, protestors continued to complain of government corruption, as well as inflation in both fuel and food. Indeed, stability has been shaken in Uganda on the back of inflation, with many in the country priced out of car or bus use, providing one of the strongest public challenges to Museveni’s rule since he took power in 1986.
The government condoning of police and military forces’ treatment of Besigye threatened to destabilise Ugandan internal security in April and May 2011. Images of the opposition leader being violently arrested during demonstrations, as well as his shooting, spurred protestors and provoked international condemnation. However, the unlikelihood of a proliferation in anti-government unrest is underpinned by Besigye’s intermittent presence in the country and his inconsistent leadership at demonstrations. Protests appear to lose momentum as Besigye leaves the country.
Externally, Uganda committed to increasing peacekeeping troops in Somalia by 2,000 in March 2011, with new troops expected on the ground by the middle of the year. Uganda’s deployment, approved by the UN in December 2010, will be matched by Burundi. Although Somalia’s al Shabaab militants warned that they intend to execute more attacks in Uganda in the second quarter of 2011, there had been no attacks similar to the suicide bombings in Kampala in 2010 by the end of the quarter. The militants did manage to kill four UPDF soldiers among troops deployed in Somalia in early June 2011, however. Diplomats from both Uganda and Kenya also plan to hold talks over the Migingo and Ugingo Islands in Lake Victoria in early July 2011.
The government remains defiant in its US$744mn deal to buy the Russian jets ahead of the country’s oil operations. The transaction has proved to be an extremely contentious one, with opponents at the very least challenging the need for the jets and with many opposition politicians also alienated by the government’s use of funds from the Bank of Uganda. The government has defended the use of the funds, arguing that parliamentary approval need not be sought on matters of defence, effectively granting Museveni carte blanche in tapping the central bank’s reserves in defence procurement and the acquisition of security equipment.
Among the US’ recent efforts to suppress militants from Somalia was the Pentagon’s plans to spend almost US$45mn in aid to Uganda and Burundi, along with four small, shoulder-launched Raven drones. The Pentagon also planned in June 2011 to send the countries body armour, communication equipment, night-vision equipment, heavy construction equipment, surveillance systems and generators.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Uganda Security SWOT 7
Political SWOT 8
Economic SWOT 9
Business Environment SWOT 10
Global Political Outlook 11
Japan After The Quake 12
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 13
Wild Cards To Watch 17
Security Risk Analysis 19
BMI’s Security Ratings 19
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings 19
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 20
City Terrorism Rating 20
Table: BMI’s Africa City Terrorism Index 21
Political Overview 23
Domestic Politics 23
Long-Term Political Outlook 25
Table: Political Overview 29
Security Risk Overview 30
Internal Security Situation 30
Latest Developments 32
External Security Situation 42
Foreign Policy 46
Military Structure And Defence Industry 49
Armed Forces 49
International Deployments 52
Latest Developments 52
Market Structure 55
Arms Trade Overview 56
Procurement Trends And Developments 57
Industry Forecast Scenario 59
Armed Forces 59
Table: Uganda’s Armed Forces, 2000-2007 (‘000 personnel) 59
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 59
Military Expenditure 59
Table: Uganda Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 60
Table: Defence Expenditure Spending – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 61
Defence Trade 62
Table: Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 62
Debt Relief Initiatives 63
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 64
Macroeconomic Forecast 64
Table: Uganda - Economic Activity, 2008-2015 67
BMI Methodology 68
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 68
Defence Industry 68
City Terrorism Rating 69
Table: Methodology 71
Sources 72
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