Uganda Telecommunications Report Q4 2011

BMI's Q4 2011 update on Uganda's telecommunications market contains revisions to our five-year forecasts for the country's mobile, internet and fixed-line telephony markets through to the end of 2015. Since our last update, new data have been published by Ugandan telecoms regulator, the Uganda Communications Commission (UCC), for various segments of the country's telecoms market. The new UCC data provided us with a good overview of the market at end-2010. Meanwhile, our mobile subscriber forecast for Uganda incorporates subscriber data for Q111. Published data are available for MTN Uganda, which is owned by South Africa's MTN Group and for Orange Uganda, which is backed by France Télécom. For Uganda's other three operators Airtel Uganda (owned by India's Bharti Airtel)), Warid Telecom and Uganda Telecom (UTL), BMI produces estimates.
We estimate there were more than 13.8mn mobile lines in Uganda at end-2010, reflecting penetration of 40.9%. Based partly on reported data and partly on estimates, we calculate Uganda's mobile customer base grew by 5.0% in Q111. In 2011 as whole, we forecast that Uganda's mobile subscriber base will grow by 21.4%, rising to about 16.76mn customers at the end of the year. In recent months, an ongoing price war in Uganda's mobile market resulted in extremely low service tariffs. Despite attempts by the country's telecoms regulator to set a new price floor for mobile tariffs, there have been further moves by the operators to lower their tariffs during the past few months.
We have also made revisions to our mobile ARPU forecast for Uganda this quarter. For 2011 we expect a 15.8% increase in Uganda's average blended ARPU. We expected it to rise to rise to UGX10,636 (US$3.8). Our revised prediction for 2011 is partly based on data published by mobile market leader MTN. This showed positive ARPU growth in the first quarter of 2011.
During this quarter we also revised our forecast for the number of Ugandan internet users and our forecast for the country's broadband subscriber base. Uganda's telecoms regulator suggests that the number of internet users grew by 29% in 2010 to reach 4mn at the end of the year. Based on this figure, Uganda had an internet user penetration rate of 11.8%. The UCC attributes rising internet usage in Uganda to the entry of three new service providers and the growing interest in mobile internet access, including from data-enabled handsets and other devices. According to the UCC, there were 640,000 internet connections at the end of 2010, comprising 605,000 mobile connections and 31,000 fixed-line connections.
Recent noteworthy developments in Uganda's telecoms sector include the news in June, that new entrant Sure Telecom had started installing infrastructure and planned to launch commercial operations by end- 2011. Once it launches commercial operations, Sure will be Uganda's seventh telco, alongside the existing Airtel, MTN, Orange, Warid, UTL and CMDA operator I-Tel. Although Uganda's mobile sector is already highly competitive, Sure intends to also invest in landline infrastructure, a sector in which there are fewer players.
Meanwhile, in May it was announced that Foris Telecom, a company which already operates in Uganda's fixed broadband sector, successfully launched its 4G mobile WiMAX network in Kampala, Uganda's capital. The network, operating in the 2.5 GHz frequency range, is the first 4G deployment in Uganda. The network is based on equipment provided by Israel's Alvarion and will provide broadband connectivity to residential and business users, as well as local municipalities
Uganda moved from 13th to 14th position in BMI's latest set of Telecoms Business Environment ratings for Sub-Saharan Africa. During this quarter, Uganda had a slightly higher score in the Industry Risks category. Meanwhile, in the Country Risk category, Uganda's score fell slightly. In the other two categories, Uganda's scores remain unchanged.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
SWOT 9
Fixed-Line 11
Political 13
Economic 14
Business Environment 16
Business Environment Analysis 17
Business Environment Analysis 17
Table: Sub-Sahara Africa Business Environment Rating, Q4 2011 21
Industry Business Environment Overview 22
Industry Forecast 24
Mobile 24
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts 24
ARPU 26
Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical Data And Forecasts 26
Fixed Line 28
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts 28
Internet 29
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts 29
Market Data Analysis 31
Mobile 31
Table: Uganda Mobile Market, Q111 34
Table: Uganda Total Mobile Market 41
Table: Airtel (formerly Zain) 42
Table: MTN 42
Table: UTL 43
Table: Warid 43
Mobile Content - Regional Outlook 43
Mobile Banking 46
Country Outlook 48
Table: Recent VAS developments 50
Fixed Line 51
Broadband 54
Regulatory Development 62
Table: Uganda Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 62
Competitive Landscape 70
Table: Key Players: Uganda Telecoms Sector 70
Vendor Profile 71
Table: Tecnotree: Five-Year Financial KPIs 71
Products & Services 72
Table: Product & Services Matrix 72
Sales Distribution 73
A Valuable Partner In Africa 73
Meeting Increasing Demand For Business Solutions In MENA 74
MEA Sales Consistently Strong 74
New Year, New Strategy 75
Operator Profiles 76
Telecom (UTL) 76
MTN Uganda 80
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 83
Table: Key Players - Uganda Telecoms Sector 83
Mobile 83
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 84
Fixed Line 84
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 85
Broadband 86
Table: Regional Internet Use Penetration Overview 87
Glossary 88
Table: Glossary Of Terms 88
Methodology 90
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 90
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 91
Table: Ratings Indicators 92
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 93
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