Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011

The latest Ukraine Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 5.24% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing just 0.54% of supply.
CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8. 9mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bcm, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 226bcm by the end of the period. Ukraine’s share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 7.48%, while its share of production is put at 2.59%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 7.35%, with the country accounting for 2.08% of supply.
Reasonable and consistent growth in oil consumption seems likely, averaging up to 3.0% per annum. This suggests that the country will be consuming around 363,000b/d of oil by 2015. With oil and liquids production likely to slip closer to 81,000b/d, Ukraine will require imports of at least 282,000b/d by 2015. BMI forecasts that gas demand will rise from an estimated 47.7bcm in 2010 to 54.2bcm by 2015. Domestic production, largely in the hands of state-owned Naftogaz Ukrainy but with some international oil company (IOC) involvement, should also increase over the near term, from an estimated 20bcm in 2010 to at least 22bcm in 2011-2012.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a fall in Ukraine oil and gas liquids production of 33.8%, with volumes falling steadily from the estimated 2010 level of 95,000b/d to 63,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 33.7%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 421,000b/d by 2020. Gas production should peak at around 22bcm in 2011-2012, then fall to 16bcm by 2020. Gas imports are set to reach 45bcm by 2020.
Ukraine holds seventh place in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country now holds 14th place, behind the Czech Republic and ahead only of Slovenia, in BMI’s updated upstream ratings, thanks to only modest hydrocarbons resources. Its gas reserves and favourable licensing regime account for much of the upstream score, but country risk factors and privatisation activity are less impressive. Ukraine arguably has the potential to overtake the Czech Republic, and is at little risk from Slovenia below. Ukraine is in the upper half of the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, claiming fourth place below Poland, Russia and Turkey. There are a few high scores, but progress further up the rankings is unlikely. There are good scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, retail site intensity and population. Romania is four points below it in the regional rankings, so Ukraine should be at little immediate risk.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Ukraine Political SWOT 7
Ukraine Economic SWOT 7
Ukraine Business Environment SWOT 8
Ukraine Energy Market Overview 9
Regional Energy Market Overview 11
Oil Supply And Demand 11
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) 12
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) 13
Oil: Downstream 14
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 14
Gas Supply And Demand 15
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) 15
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) 16
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 17
Business Environment Ratings 18
Central/Eastern Europe Region 18
Composite Scores 19
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 19
Upstream Scores 20
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating 20
Ukraine Upstream Rating – Overview 21
Ukraine Upstream Rating – Rewards 21
Ukraine Upstream Rating – Risks 21
Downstream Scores 22
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating 22
Ukraine Downstream Rating – Overview 23
Ukraine Downstream Rating – Rewards 23
Ukraine Downstream Rating – Risks 23
Business Environment 24
Legal Framework 24
Property Rights 24
Intellectual Property Rights 24
Corruption 25
Physical Infrastructure 25
Labour Force 26
Foreign Investment Policy 27
Foreign Trade Regime 28
Tax Regime 28
Security Risk 29
Industry Forecast Scenario 31
Oil And Gas Reserves 31
Oil Supply and Demand 31
Gas Supply And Demand 32
LNG 33
Refining And Oil Products Trade 33
Revenues/Import Costs 34
Table: Ukraine Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 34
Other Energy 36
Table: Ukraine Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 38
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 38
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook 38
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 39
Oil Refineries 39
Table: Refineries In Ukraine 39
Oil Pipelines 42
LNG Terminals 43
Gas Storage 44
Gas Pipelines 44
Macroeconomic Outlook 46
Table: Ukraine – Economic Activity 48
Competitive Landscape 49
Executive Summary 49
Table: Key Players – Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector 50
Overview/State Role 50
Government Policy 50
International Energy Relations 51
Table: Key Upstream Players 55
Table: Key Downstream Players 55
Company Monitor 56
Naftogaz Ukrainy 56
TNK-BP 59
Lukoil Ukraine 61
JKX Oil & Gas 63
Galnaftogaz 66
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary 68
UkrTatNafta – Summary 68
Tatneft – Summary 69
Regal Petroleum – Summary 69
Cadogan Petroleum – Summary 71
Transeuro Energy – Summary 71
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 73
Regional Oil Demand 73
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) 73
Regional Oil Supply 74
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) 74
Regional Refining Capacity 75
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 75
Regional Gas Demand 76
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) 76
Regional Gas Supply 77
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) 77
Ukraine Country Overview 77
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 78
Glossary Of Terms 79
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology 80
Introduction 80
Ratings Overview 80
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 81
Indicators 81
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 82
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology 83
BMI Methodology 85
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 85
Energy Industry 86
Cross checks 86
Sources 86
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