United Arab Emirates Food and Drink Report Q3 2011

As one of only a handful of countries that have not seen large-scale public demonstrations as a result of the regional upheaval, perceptions surrounding underlying economic and political stability in the UAE have been given a considerable boost in recent months. However, while things have seemingly improved compared with a year ago, particularly in Dubai, dynamic premiumisation is yet to come back to the fore.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 per-capita food consumption growth in local currency = 5.10%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 5.78%.
?? 2011 soft drinks value sales = 10.53%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 10.88%.
?? 2011 mass grocery retail sales = 8.89%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 9.57%
Key Company Trends
Auchan Withdraws From Dubai – In January 2011 French food retailer Auchan dropped out of the Dubai market after just two years. This move suggests that from the point of view of some of the world's leading Western retailers, the Gulf region dynamic on a per-capita income basis does not provide sufficient scale compared with other emerging retail regions. Even though Dubai is still without question the region's high-income hotspot and most in tune with Western consumer habits, consumers are not spending quite as freely as they were before Auchan entered the market.
Café Culture Taking Off – In line with the trend of increasingly Western consumption habits, a number of major coffee chains have been opening shops in the UEA. In October 2010 it was reported that UK coffee chain Cafè Nero had opened three new outlets in Dubai. These are the chain's latest foray into the UAE market, where it already has 11 stores. In January 2011, Swiss food group Nestlé opened its first Nespresso coffee 'boutique' store in the UAE.
Risks To Outlook The UAE will remain vulnerable to external forces, specifically energy prices. On the downside, lower oil prices would probably dampen investor confidence in the Gulf region and affect government spending power. A sustained period of strong economic momentum will be necessary to revitalise the consumer sector and re-attract high-spending expatriates.

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BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
UAE Food Industry SWOT 6
UAE Drink Industry SWOT 7
UAE Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 8
Business Environment 9
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 9
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views 15
Middle East Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings 16
Table: Middle East & North Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q311 19
UAE Food & Drink Business Environment Rating 20
Macroeconomic Outlook 21
Table: United Arab Emirates – Economic Activity 25
Industry Forecast Scenario 26
Consumer Outlook 26
Food 28
Food Consumption 28
Table: Food Indicators 29
Drink 29
Soft Drinks 29
Table: Soft Drinks Sales 31
Hot Drinks 32
Mass Grocery Retail 32
Table: Retail Sales 34
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts 34
Trade 34
Table: Exports, Imports, Balance 35
Food 36
Key Industry Trends And Developments 36
Multinational Companies Continuing To Pursue Expansion Despite Downturn 36
Gulf Companies Diversifying 36
Big Duty-Free Divergence Still In Play 37
Market Overview 38
Food Production 38
Agriculture 38
Halal Food 39
Table: Muslim Populations In Select Countries 40
Drink 41
Key Industry Trends And Developments 41
Key Players Diversifying 41
Carbonates Majors Raise Prices 41
Beverage Sales Performing Well 41
Coffee Sector Attracting Investors 41
Alcohol Sales Targets Transit Travellers 42
Market Overview 42
Hot Drinks 42
Soft Drinks 43
Mass Grocery Retail 44
Key Industry Trends And Developments 44
Duty Free Sales Flying 44
Investment and Expansions Continue 44
Multinational Presence Growing? 45
Market Overview 45
Competitive Landscape 47
Table: Key Players in the UAE's Food & Drink Sector 47
Table: Key Players in UAE's Mass Grocery Retail Sector 49
Company Analysis 50
Food 50
Unilever Middle East 50
Abu Dhabi National Foodstuff Company (Foodco) 51
Al Ain Dairy 52
Drink 53
Masafi 53
Al Ain Mineral Water Company 54
Mass Grocery Retail 55
EMKE Group (LuLu) 55
Carrefour MAF 56
Spinneys Dubai 57
BMI Food & Drink Methodology 58
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 58
Ratings Methodology 58
Ratings Overview 58
Ratings System 58
Indicators 58
Table: Limits Of Potential Returns 59
Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns 60
Weighting 61
Table: Weighting 61
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 62
Food & Drink 62
Mass Grocery Retail 62
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing 64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 64
Sourcing 65
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