We continue to be concerned by the state of the shipping industry. Container shipping companies are struggling to push through rate increases and liquid and dry bulk operators are contending with some of the lowest daily returns in years. The cause is overcapacity, which looks unlikely to ameliorate any time soon. Furthermore, there are fresh challenges on the way, including the mega ships being built by Vale and Maersk Line. Global air freight is struggling, but the Middle East is one region that is faring better than most. The UAE in particular is seeing growth on the back of the new al-Maktoum International Airport, which is connected to Jebel Ali by the Dubai Logistics Corridor.
Headline Industry Data
.. 2011 Jebel Ali and Port Rashid total tonnage throughput growth forecast at 6.7%, and to average 6.0% to 2015.
.. 2011 air freight tonnes through Dubai airport forecast to grow by 0.5% and average 4.3% to 2015.
.. The UAE's total trade real growth in 2011 forecast to be 8.6%, and to average 7.6% over the medium term, to 2015.
Key Industry Trends
10% Growth For Gulf's Logistics Sector
~The Arabian Gulf's logistics sector has seen 10% annual growth. The region has become a major hub for international logistics, particularly as a result of conscious decisions by areas such as Dubai to place themselves at the heart of international trade flows. Much of the growth in the sector is from third party logistics providers, which support the operations of more established firms. Revenues from the UAE's logistics market are expected to hit US$9.4bn by 2014 according to a report from Frost & Sullivan, released in May. The growth is led by the new al-Maktoum airport, and the Dubai Logistics Corridor that connects the facility with DP World's Jebel Ali port.
New Abu Dhabi-Frankfurt Service Example Of Middle Eastern Air Freight Expansion Etihad Crystal Cargo, the cargo wing of Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways, has begun a new service with the new freighter aircraft it recently received from Boeing. BMI notes that the Middle Eastern cargo carriers are growing at an impressive rate, helping the Middle East keep its cargo-carrying growth rate above the global average.
Jebel Ali Bunker Service To Lure Trade, But No Challenge To Fujairah In May Shell Marine Products (Shell) became the first major global integrated energy company to launch bunkering operations at Dubai's port of Jebel Ali. BMI does not believe the operation will ever be big enough to rival the port of Fujairah, in one of the UAE's northern emirates, but it could entice still more container ships to the transhipment hub.
Key Risks To Outlook
The key risk to our outlook for the Gulf countries remains the threat of further political unrest which spread through the wider region as part of the 'Arab Spring.' We deem it unlikely, but should turmoil spread to the UAE then our forecasts could be effected. Furthermore, should the western economies undergo a double-dip recession then the UAE's developing role as a transhipment hub for both sea and air could be impacted.
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