United Arab Emirates Tourism Report Q3 2011

Tourism Overview
Following a recovery in foreign visitor arrivals to the UAE in 2010, recent data suggest a solid start to 2011. In Abu Dhabi, latest figures for first four months of 2011 record a favourable 10% year-on-year (yo- y) rise in the number of tourists (including UAE arrivals) at hotels and hotel apartments, to around 694,000 guests. The authorities in Dubai plan to increase their participation in international tourism exhibitions and workshops in 2011, with over 25 campaigns in 10 countries. Latest official statistics show that the number of guests at Dubai hotels increased to over 1.8mn in Q111, representing good growth of 14% y-o-y. In Sharjah, figures for Q111 show reasonable growth of 4.9% y-o-y in the total number of tourist arrivals (including UAE nationals) in hotel and hotel apartments (to about 421,500), while data for April show an 11% increase in visitors, compared with the same month in 2010. During Q1, European arrivals accounted for some 47% of total visitors, while tourists from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Asia accounted for 29% and 11% respectively.
Hospitality
Abu Dhabi’s hospitality sector recorded very strong performance in the early part of 2011. In the period January-April, guest nights increased a buoyant 26% y-o-y, to 2.1mn nights. Over the same period, occupancy levels were up 10% y-o-y to 72%, while the average length of stay increased 14% to just over three nights. Traditional European source markets performed well with arrivals from the UK and Germany both rising 19% y-o-y, and visitors from France and Italy growing a sizeable 35% and 20% respectively. Guests from Saudi Arabia were up 46% y-o-y, arrivals from Russia rose 50% and tourists from India – now a key source market – increased 29%. In Sharjah, growth in the sector has also been strong, with the total number of hotel and hotel apartment room nights sold in Q111 at 478,456, a healthy increase of more than 16% compared with Q110. The overall occupancy rate for hotels and hotel apartments also increased, by 5% y-o-y in Q111. Figures for April, meanwhile, show even stronger growth of nearly 23% in total room nights, compared with April 2010. In Dubai, hotels recorded a high average occupancy rate of 81% in the first quarter of 2011.
Forecast Scenario Annual growth in foreign tourist arrivals is forecast to remain favourable in both 2011 and 2012, at 11% and some 9% respectively. The outlook is based on stable economic growth in the two major source regions, the eurozone and the Middle East. Our revised growth predictions for the eurozone stand at 1.8% in both 2011 and 2012, while in the Middle East and North Africa region growth is forecast at 4.1% and 4.0% respectively over the same two-year period. With regard to the UK, the top source market for inbound tourists to Dubai, we forecast economic growth of 1.7% and 2.2% (both revised down this quarter) in 2011 and 2012. Over the short term regional political turmoil, for example in Bahrain and Egypt, may also stimulate tourism to the UAE (especially Dubai), particularly business tourism.
Airlines
For the financial year ending March 31 2011, Dubai-based Emirates Group posted net profits of AED5.9bn (US$1.6bn), representing an increase of about 43% on a year earlier. Group turnover was nearly AED57.4bn (US$15.6bn), an increase of 26.4% from FY09/10. In the face of a challenging business environment, these results are impressive. Following buoyant annual growth in passenger numbers of 20% in the previous year, Emirates carried over 31.4mn passengers in FY10/11, up a strong 14.5% y-o-y. From November 2011, Emirates will commence flights to Baghdad and St Petersburg. Also in November, the flag carrier of Abu Dhabi, Etihad Airways, will commence operations to Mahé in the Republic of Seychelles. In Q111, Sharjah-based Air Arabia recorded a strong 11% y-o-y increase in passenger traffic, to 1.2mn.

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
UAE Tourism SWOT 7
UAE Political SWOT .. 8
UAE Economic SWOT 9
UAE Business Environment SWOT 10
Industry Forecast Scenario 11
Arrivals .. 11
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 11
Accommodation . 14
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 .. 15
Expenditure .. 17
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015.. 17
Inbound Tourism 18
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Region, 2007-2015 18
Outbound Tourism 19
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 . 20
Market Overview – Travel 21
Airports .. 21
Commercial Airlines 22
Table: Key Players – UAE Commercial Airlines, 2010 (unless stated) . 22
Global Oil Products Price Outlook .. 26
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 26
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) .. 29
Market Overview – Hospitality . 31
Accommodation Developments .. 32
Table: Selected Accommodation Projects In The UAE 36
Regional Case Study: Accor . 37
Tourism Infrastructure 39
Business Environment Outlook .. 41
Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 41
BMI’s Security Ratings .. 41
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings . 42
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 43
The UAE’s Security Risks . 43
City Terrorism Ratings .. 45
Table: BMI’s Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index 46
Middle East And Africa Security Overview .. 47
Global Assumptions, Q311 49
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .. 49
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 50
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) .. 50
Developed States 51
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 52
Emerging Markets. 53
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .. 54
Consensus Forecasts. 55
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) .. 55
Company Profiles 56
Emirates .. 56
Etihad Airways 59
BMI Methodology 61
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 61
Tourism Industry . 61
Tourism Ratings – Methodology . 62
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators . 63
Table: Weighting of Components 64
City Terrorism Ratings .. 64
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology. 66
Sources .. 66
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