United Kingdom Power Report Q1 2012

BMI View: In Britain, the power clock is ticking. Key decisions must be reached and new policies implemented. Nuclear is to be a key plank of electricity supply strategy, but is not backed by public support. Investment in renewables has been rising fast, with wind power the chosen option. Proposed changes to planning rules may help accelerate the onshore wind turbine trend, while offshore schemes are making good progress. Shifting subsidies for solar installations may slow the rate of expansion. The UK has pledged to derive 15% of its energy from renewable sources by the end of the decade and reduce carbon-dioxide emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. Achieving this will require as much as 40GW of low-carbon energy projects, according to a December 2010 report from the Committee on Climate Change.
Key trends and recent developments in the British electricity market include: Britain's nuclear regulator in December 2011 issued interim design approval for Areva and EdF Energy's European Pressurised Water Reactor (EPR) and Westinghouse's AP1000 nuclear reactor, paving the way for UK plant developers to use them in new power stations. Both companies have additional technicalities to clarify but the regulator said it was satisfied they would resolve remaining issues to gain a full licence, which is needed to start construction.
During the 2011-2021 period, the UK’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 0.94%, reaching 399.7TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 1.36% gain in gas-fired and a 1.05% rise in nuclear generation, accompanied by an annual increase in excess of 7.82% for renewablesbased electricity supply.
Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 1.1%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 2.3% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 62.4mn to 66.2mn during the 2011-2021 period, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 323TWh to 341TWh by 2016, rising further to 360TWh by 2021. During the 2011-2016 period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 0.63%, but accelerating later in the decade to an average 1.12% in 2016-2021.
Thanks partly to the forecast slow but steady rise in net generation, with growth slightly exceeding the underlying demand trend, the UK’s power supply shortfall is likely to decrease as new capacity kicks in – particularly towards the end of the forecast period. A broadly unchanged percentage of transmission and distribution losses at around 9.5% will do little to help strengthen the market. The theoretical net import requirement by 2016 will be 2.7TWh unless demand growth beats expectations, and will have been virtually eradicated by 2021 if investment reaches the required level.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
UK Power SWOT 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview 11
Industry Forecast Scenario 15
UK Snapshot (Macro) 15
Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 15
Country Snapshot: Power Sector 15
UK Forecast Scenario 16
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 16
Table: United Kingdom Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts 19
Table: United Kingdom Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 23
Table: United Kingdom Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 25
Thermal 26
Nuclear 28
Electricity Consumption 32
Table: United Kingdom Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts 32
Table: United Kingdom Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts 32
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 33
Table: United Kingdom Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 33
Table: United Kingdom Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 33
Table: United Kingdom Trade Data And Forecasts 33
Table: United Kingdom Trade Data And Forecasts 33
Key Policies/Market Structure 36
Regulation and Competition 36
Pricing 37
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of June 2011 37
Key Projects Database 39
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects -- Energy & Utilities 39
Business Environment 42
Developed Countries Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 42
Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 42
UK Power Risk/Reward Ratings 45
Rewards 45
Risks 45
Competitive Landscape 46
EDF Energy 46
The National Grid Company 46
EON 46
RWE npower 47
SSE 47
Scottish Power 47
Centrica 48
UK Power Report Q1 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Company Monitor 49
EDF Energy 49
Glossary of Terms 51
Table: Glossary of Terms 51
Methodology And Sources 52
Industry Forecasts 52
Power Industry - Data Methodology 53
Generation and Consumption Data 53
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 54
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 57
Sources 58
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