United Kingdom Tourism Report Q3 2011

A great number of visitors will be travelling the UK to attend or be a part of the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics in London. While tourism in 2012 will increase due to the amount of people from around the world attending the games – BMI forecasts 35.08mn tourists in 2012 – tourism arrivals are also forecast to increase following the events. The ‘legacy effect’ of the games, thanks to the media exposure and publicity associated with the Olympics (3.9bn people watched the 2000 Olympics in Sydney) can last for up to a decade following the event. According to research by the national tourism agency VisitBritain, VisitLondon and Oxford Economics, for the post-games period of 2013-2017 a legacy effect of GBP1.27bn is forecast for the UK and of GBP0.88bn for London.
UK transport group Stobart is working on growing the Southend Airport, which is a 50-minute train ride from London, into yet another feeder for the capital. The group is hoping to capitalise on the increase in air traffic associated with the Olympics in 2012. Stobart has completed the construction of a new railway station and control tower, while the runway extension and airport hotel construction are ongoing. Stobart expects Air Arann to carry 300,000 passengers a year to Southend.
After dropping in 2009 to under US$27.3mn, tourist expenditure started to climb back up in 2010, reaching an estimated US$29.5mn by the end of the year. BMI forecasts expenditure by tourists in the UK to continue to increase, reaching more than US$41mn in 2015. Also forecast to increase is tourism expenditure’s contribution to the UK’s GDP. In 2010, tourism expenditure is estimated to have accounted for 2.01% of GDP. This is expected to increase to 2.17% by the end of our forecast period.
Europe is the UK’s main regional source market for inbound tourism. The region is forecast to account for nearly 25.30mn tourists in 2011, and this is predicted to increase to 32.92mn by 2015. In second and third place are the Asia Pacific region and North America. In 2011, 4.39mn tourists are expected to visit the UK from North America, while 3.58mn will come from Asia Pacific. By 2015, Asia Pacific arrivals are forecast to outpace North American arrivals slightly at 4.77mn, compared to 4.47mn North American arrivals.
After decreasing in 2009 and 2010, international tourism expenditure by UK residents is forecast to increase from US$87.53mn in 2011 to US$119.85mn in 2015. In line with this forecast, the number of total departures by residents is also forecast to increase, from 71.15mn in 2011 to a forecast 81.38mn in 2015. The majority of UK residents visit Europe, with a forecast 55.00mn expected to head to the region in 2011 and 60.41mn forecast to be travelling to Europe in 2015. In distant second and third place are North America and Asia Pacific. In 2011, 4.60mn UK residents are forecast to travel to North America, while 4.87mn will travel to the Asia Pacific region. Out of the two regions, Asia Pacific should experience the most growth by 2015, with 7.25mn UK residents making it their destination of choice and only 4.69mn going to North America.
The UK hotel industry is also forecast to grow. Despite the recent recession, and for some hoteliers because of it, operators are expanding in the UK. The country’s largest hotel operator, Whitbread, plans to open 18 hotels in 2011 and steadily increase that number thereafter. A third Four Seasons hotel is scheduled to open in 2014 in London and the budget hotel chain Travelodge is building 13 new hotels in and around the UK’s major cities, with four in the London area.

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
UK Tourism SWOT .. 7
UK Political SWOT .. 7
UK Economic SWOT .. 8
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 9
Arrivals . 9
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 .. 9
Accommodation . 10
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) .. 10
Expenditure .. 11
Table: Tourist Expenditure Data, 2007-2015 .. 11
Inbound Tourism 11
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2007-2015 .. 12
Outbound Tourism 13
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 . 14
Market Overview – Travel 15
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 17
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 17
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) .. 20
Market Overview – Hospitality . 22
Security Risk Analysis . 23
BMI’s Security Ratings .. 23
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 23
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .. 24
City Terrorism Ratings .. 25
Table: BMI’s Western Europe City Terrorism Ratings Index 26
Europe Security Overview 27
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 27
Global Assumptions . 33
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .. 33
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 34
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) .. 34
Developed States 35
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 36
Emerging Markets. 37
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .. 38
Consensus Forecasts 39
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) .. 39
Company Profiles 40
BAA 40
Whitbread .. 40
British Airways 40
Thomas Cook 41
BMI Methodology 42
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 42
Tourism Industry . 42
City Terrorism Ratings .. 43
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology. 45
Sources .. 45
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